CORONA AND WEATHER

There is a Saisonality

Dr. med. Roland Quast
Dr. med. Bernd Haaff
Dr. med. Sabine Roelcke

Imprint

CORONA AND WEATHER

Copyright: © 2021
Dr. med. Roland Quast
Dr. med. Bernd Haaff
Dr. med. Sabine Roelcke

published by: epubli GmbH, Berlin
www.epubli.de

Authors

Dr. med. Roland Quast

Director Aeromedical Center Germany

Aeromedical Examiner EASA, BAF und FAA

Member of International Academy of Aviation and Space Medicine

Member ICAO working group mental health

Dr. med. Bernd Haaff

Internist
Kardiologe
Internistische Intensivmedizin Flugmedizin
Oberarzt der herzchirurgischen Intensivstation
ECMO-Zentrum Klinik für Thorax-Herz- und Gefäßchirurgie

Westpfalz-Klinikum Kaiserslautern
Aeromedical Examiner EASA

Dr. med. Sabine Roelcke

CEO Aeromedical Center Germany

Fachärztin für Innere Medizin und Allgemeinmedizin
Arbeits- Verkehrs- und Flugmedizin

EASA Circle of Experts

Lehrbeauftragte der Universität Stuttgart

Aeromedical Examiner EASA, BAF und FAA

Stuttgart-Airport, Mai 2021

Copyright 2021 Aeromedical Center Germany Dr. Roland Quast (C)

Unpredecentend challenge

The pandemic with SARS-CoV-2 and the known mutations of this virus poses an unprecedented medical and economic challenge to the world population.

Our team is very activ, information, vaccination, treating.

In addition to monitoring the spread of the virus and its gene sequences, consideration of the physicochemical properties of the virus (virus persistence in aerosols, temperature dependence, dependence on humidity and UV radiation) appears relevant to reduce the spread of the virus.

Weather Dependency

Observations, as well as literature reviews, make it likely that infection rates are dependent on weather conditions.

On the one hand, exploding knowledge - on the other, an immense need for information.

While researching this topic, we noticed that there is no easy-to-read guide to the corona virus and the pandemic. That is why we decided to write this little book.

No flu wave in Germany in 2021

This year, Germany seems to have been spared the usual usual flu season. Shortly before the end, the so far 519 laboratory-confirmed cases as defined by the Working Group on Influenza (AGI) at the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) are not enough to speak of the beginning of a flu wave.

There hasn't been a flu epidemic at all. This, he said, is a first since flu surveillance began in 1992 by the working Working Group.

Most other countries in the northern hemisphere have also been spared the wave.

A Virus paralyses us

The pandemic with SARS-CoV-2 and the known mutations of this virus poses an unprecedented medical and economic challenge to the world population.

Measures to inhibit the spread of the virus are essential until there is sufficient immunization of the world's population.

In addition to monitoring the spread of the virus and its gene sequences, consideration of the physicochemical properties of the virus (virus persistence in aerosols, temperature dependence, dependence on humidity and UV radiation) appears relevant to reduce the spread of the virus.

Weather Dependency

Observations, as well as literature reviews, make it likely that infection rates are dependent on weather conditions.

On the one hand, exploding knowledge - on the other, an immense need for information.

While researching this topic, we noticed that there is no easy-to-read guide to the corona virus and the pandemic. That is why we decided to write this little book.

No flu wave in Germany in 2021

This year, Germany seems to have been spared the usual usual flu season. Shortly before the end, the so far 519 laboratory-confirmed cases as defined by the Working Group on Influenza (AGI) at the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) are not enough to speak of the beginning of a flu wave.

There hasn't been a flu epidemic at all. This, he said, is a first since flu surveillance began in 1992 by the working Working Group.

Most other countries in the northern hemisphere have also been spared the wave.

Understanding CORONA

A pandemic keeps the world in suspense and has unprecedented effects on the coexistence of people, science, economy and politics.

Every day, knowledge about the SARS-CoV-2 virus, its mutants and measures to combat the infection grows. Thousands of reports, technical papers, discussions, study results, assessments and comments reach the public.

Temperature, relative humidity and UV radiation strongly influence the infection rate with the corona virus. The influence of the seasons on new infections with the Corona virus has now been scientifically proven.

The information covers basic areas of knowledge - from aerosols and vaccines to corona-tests.

The target group is people who want to inform themselves quickly, medium-sized businesses and companies. Important sources and links on the pandemic, authorities, ministries and occupational health guidelines are directly available in the book. They are updated regularly.

INSPIRATION FOR THIS BOOK

Incidence numbers are correlating with geographical altitude

The distribution of new infections in Germany is reminiscent of an elevation relief map. This coincidence could be by chance, nevertheless it seemed worth considering an analysis of previous publications.

Can corona virus infection and disease be related to meteorological data, specifically air temperature, water vapor saturation and UV radiation?

Based on our observations, we developed this working hypothesis:

There is a correlation between disease incidence, air temperature, water vapor saturation and UV radiation.

There may still be mathematical factors that influence this number, but essential are the factors that are present in the atmosphere, temperature, relative humidity and UV radiation.

COVID-19 DISTRIBUTION RELEVANT TO ALTITUDE?

When reading the development of the Corona figures on a daily basis the distribution of new infections in Germany is reminiscent of an elevated high-altitude relief map of Germany. Austria and Switzerland show similar pictures.

This coincidence could be coincidental, nevertheless it seemed worth considering an analysis of previous publications to be performed. Is there any relation of the disease to the meteorological data, especially the air temperature, water vapor saturation and UV radiation?

Based on our observations, we developed the working hypothesis:

There is a correlation between COVID-19 incidence, air temperature, water vapor saturation and UV radiation.

Switzerland and Austria show similar pictures

CORONA IN THE MOUNTAINS

FACT

Temperature decreases with altitude, in dry air more than in clouds.

Up to the end of the troposphere at an altitude of about 11 km, the temperature decreases evenly in a linear fashion, always assuming that the weather is stable weather situation.

Basics:

per 100 meters, the temperature decreases by about 1°C in dry air. When this air mass condenses during the ascent due to cooling energy is released.

This process lowers the cooling rate of rising air per 100 m to approx. 0.7 °C. In the process, the air becomes dryer.

Temperature and Pressure Rates

In addition an analysis of the meteorologically and geographically given conditions: Different sea levels should be seen epidemiologically differently. Temperature, humidity and UV radiation are different at different altitudes.

Another point that can influence the spread of the virus is the air flow.

In strong air currents (westerly wind, easterly wind), the virus is transported by the wind in an aerosol with a lifespan of up to four days.

Air currents can also lead to a deviation of the congruence of the Corona infection map with the geographic relief map, depending on the wind direction, air currents cantilever over the mountains and transport viruses in aerosols.

STUDY FROM CHINA

While searching for correlations, we found a study from China on the Internet with an interesting result:

1 °C increase in temperature makes a reduction in the infection rate from 3 %

The relationship of temperature and humidity to the incidence of COVID-19 infection/disease is not consistent; however, in the literature several studies have shown a decrease of infections.

The work of Wu (Effects of temperature and humidity on the daily new cases and new deaths of COVID-19 in 166 countries ) describes effects that may be consistent with the observations described above.

Effects of temperature and humidity on the daily new cases and new deaths of COVID-19 in 166 countries

Yu Wu 1, Wenzhan Jing 1, Jue Liu 1, Qiuyue Ma 1, Jie Yuan 1, Yaping Wang 1 Min Du 1, Min Liu 2 Affiliations

PMID: 32361460

PMCID: PMC7187824

DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.139051 Free PMC article

STUDY FROM USA

There is much longer virus persistence in cold air than at higher temperatures.

The effect of humidity overlaps the curve. Persistence is lowest at a relative humidity of 60%; this is true at both high temperatures and low, with the effect of humidity being less pronounced at low temperatures than at higher temperatures.

Correlation of virus titer, temperature and relative humidity:

2020 Nov 16;2020.11.13.20231472.

doi: 10.1101/2020.11.13.20231472. Preprint

Role of air temperature and humidity in the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the United States

Yiqun Ma, Sen Pei, Jeffrey Shaman, Robert Dubrow, Kai Chen

PMID: 33236018

PMCID: PMC7685329

DOI: 10.1101/2020.11.13.20231472

Dylan et al. make a dependence of the infectivity of SARS-CoV-2 on air temperature and humidity highly probable.

INFLUENCE UV-RADIATION

We found a calculator for the estimated airborne decay of SARS-CoV-2 under a range of temperatures, relative humidity and UV-Index on the official website of the Department of Homeland Security in the United States.

Homeland Security adds to temperature and relative humidity a third criterion: UV radiation and developed a calculator.

CORONA-DECAY • UV-RADIATION

wetter.de has probably adopted the Homeland Security algorhythm.

This weather report gives the corona decay in hours.

This information is likely to be based on the SARS-CoV-2 Surface Decay Calculator of the Homeland Security of the USA.

Note the occultation and solar irradiance in relation to the Corona decay

Weather report from wetter.de with indication of the Corona decay index.

Under cloud cover, the decay time of the corona virus is 12 hours; under sunny conditions, it is 2 hours.

STUDY FROM CYPRUS

Impact of climatic conditions on the transmission dynamics of viruses

Summary of this study:

"Epidemic models do not take into account the impact of climatic conditions on the transmission dynamics of viruses."

This study confirms on a scientific basis the influence of seasons on the spread of coronavirus, the transmission of viruses via the air and the outbreak of pandemics over a whole year.

Using data obtained from high-fidelity multiphase fluid dynamics simulations, we calculate the concentration rate of Coronavirus particles in contaminated saliva droplets and derive a new airborne infection rat.

INFLUENCE OF SEASONS

"Combining the simplest form of epidemiological model, susceptible-infected-recovered, and the AIR index, we use data to show how weather seasonality induces two outbreaks per year, as observed in the COVID-19 pandemic worldwide.

We present the results for the number of cases and transmission rates for three cities, New York, Paris, and Rio de Janeiro.

The results suggest that two pandemic outbreaks per year are inevitable because they are directly related to what we call weather seasonality.

Pandemic outbreaks are associated with changes in temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed regardless of the season.

We suggest that epidemiological models need to incorporate climate effects through AIR index must be included.“

IS THE VIRUS WEATHER SENSITIVE?

The virus concentration behaves according to the seasons in the northern and southern hemisphere of the earth. In spring it is more present in the northern hemisphere, in autumn in the southern hemisphere. It respects the equator.

THE FIVE PARAMETERS

TYPE OF VIRUS • TEMPERATURE • RELATIVE HUMIDITY • UV-RADIATION • SAISONALITY

There are five scientifically proven factors that affect corona virus:

Type of Virus

Temperature

relative Humidity

UV-radiation

saisonal periodicity

These five parameters have an effect both outdoors and indoors.

Governments and policy makers have so far completely ignored weather patterns.

The weather pattern is completely disregarded, although it plays a major role.

There is a scientifically proven influence of weather and a seasonal pattern to the pandemic.

The viral envelope is particularly stable at a temperature of 10 °C. With increasing heat, the stability is reduced, the virus becomes unstable, and the envelope can burst.

These is the optimal temperature and humidity against the spread of the virus:

The temperature and the humidity indicated