"They shouldn't allow humans to drive!"

(Image Credit: Space machine, 2015)

The revolution, when it comes, will be engendered by the advent of autonomous or “self-driving” vehicles. And the timing may be sooner than you think.

(Source: Center for Automotive Research, 2013 [1])

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Editor and Author:

Ing. Michael Nikowitz, MSc.
Fernkorngasse 54/1/310
1100 Vienna, Austria
michael.nikowitz@gmx.at

Illustration, Layout and Design:

Image courtesy of Creative Quantum Jumps
by Michael Nikowitz
www.creativequantumjumps.com

Copyright © Nikowitz 2015
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The author and the editor are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the author nor the editor give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made.

About the author

Michael Nikowitz was born in Vienna (Austria), in 1986.
From an early age, he was interested in the field of technique.

After he finished secondary technical school with a focus on mechatronics and automation, he graduated from the University of Applied Sciences (Technikum Wien) in 2011, with a Master of Science in Engineering in the field of Mechatronics and Robotics.
After working in the field of industrial and mobile robots, he changed his fields of interest to mechatronic concepts and technical optical systems.
After several years of working as a laser engineer in the field of ultrashort pulse laser systems, he finally moved to the field of advanced propulsion systems of various vehicles driven by electrified drive trains.
Currently he is working there as scientific advisor for a strategic platform of the Austrian Federal Ministry for Transport, Innovation and Technology.
He also works for the International Energy Agency, where he represents Austria as a National Delegate and works as an Operating Agent for an international task called “System Optimization and Vehicle Integration of Hybrid and Electric Vehicles”.
Always interested in the field of robotics, he remains active in the advancement of automation and robotics by working for the association for promotion of automation and robotics as vice president. Happily, this position allows him to integrate his knowledge of robots and self-driving vehicles.

Preface

Current trends in energy supply and use are unsustainable, whether in terms of environment, economy or society. We have to change the path that we are now on. We must reduce greenhouse gas emissions and we have to improve energy efficiency, by using low-carbon energy technologies.
In the search for a sustainable solution to these challenges, electrical energy may be the key to success, particularly when it comes to mobility. Vehicles driven by an electrified powertrain can significantly contribute to the protection of the environment.
Right now, the automotive industry is facing two major trends: the electrification of the drive train and autonomous driving. These trends are not independent thanks to the fact that the electrified power train eases the implementation of driverless vehicles.

Has there ever been a finer creation that the automobile?
Since the invention of the modern car in 1886 by Karl Benz, it has been bringing pleasure to every one of us. For nearly 130 years, the automotive industry has been a force for innovation and economic growth.
But is it still in tune?
Now, in the 21st century, the pace of innovation is speeding up and the automotive sector is facing a new kind of technological revolution as it approaches “fully autonomous vehicles”.
Self-driving vehicles clearly impact the experience of passengers, but perhaps more importantly this technology will have an impact on several sectors of our society and on our whole ecosystem.

Sooner or later, it may become possible for automobiles to drive autonomously and successfully to their destinations.

How will this technology change the relationship between people and their automobiles? How will self-driving vehicles change the transportation sector and our freedom of mobility as we know it today? If autonomous cars succeed, how will they change our world? Could autonomous cars replace public transportation?

This book has a focus on autonomous driving from various perspectives; it looks at what an autonomous car is and how it may come to be commonplace on our roads, as well as the factors that could prevent its development and adoption.
It also reviews the potential benefits of these vehicles and how they might impact different aspects of our lives. The book also examines the challenges and hurdles that face driverless vehicles and considers some solutions to these obstacles to enable successful market penetration.
Aside from the social and economic consequences of autonomous vehicles, this book also emphasizes the technical point of view. It describes the technological inventions and engineering concepts which are necessary to operate self-driving vehicles.
In summary, this book provides a comprehensive overview of the current state of the art in driverless cars and makes some projections for the future.

Autonomous cars no longer exist merely in the minds of children and science fiction writers. They are real and will be on roads sooner than you think.

                                                                                  Michael Nikowitz

Contents

1       Introduction. 8

1.1          Definition of (fully) autonomous vehicles. 8

1.2          What does a “driverless” vehicle look like?. 9

1.3          Why are autonomous vehicles important now?. 15

2       Benefits and societal impacts of autonomous driving. 22

2.1          The promises of autonomous driving. 22

2.2          The impacts of autonomous driving. 30

3       Barriers and challenges of autonomous driving. 36

3.1          The loss of joy. 36

3.2          Increases in unemployment 37

3.3          Data protection and privacy. 37

3.4          Costs of autonomous vehicles. 38

3.5          Market introduction and transit period. 40

3.6          Legislation and liability. 41

3.7          The 2x2 dimension of autonomous driving. 47

4       A cost/ benefit analysis of autonomous driving. 50

5       From ADAS to fully autonomous driving. 51

5.1          ADAS-Systems - an overview.. 54

5.2          Accident avoidance through ADAS. 55

5.3          ADAS - a fast growing industry. 57

5.4          The different steps towards self-driving vehicles. 63

6       Technical requirements for autonomous driving. 69

7       Examples of autonomous vehicles. 87

7.1          Google’s self-driving cars - first generation. 89

7.2          Google’s next generation of self-driving cars. 93

8       Availability of autonomous vehicles and future outlook. 98

8.1          Current status. 98

8.2          When to expect (fully) autonomous driving?. 102

9       The future of the driverless-automotive industry. 110

10          Conclusion. 119

11          Appendix. 122

11.1       List of References. 122

11.2       List of Figures. 131

11.3       Abbreviations and Nomenclature. 134

1        Introduction

Visions of unmanned and autonomous machines and vehicles are not new. Experiments with unmanned aircrafts began in the First World War and a radio controlled car was demonstrated in the streets of New York in 1925 [2].

Autonomous vehicles have long been predicted in science fiction and discussed in popular science media.
Recently, major corporations have announced plans to begin selling fully autonomous vehicles in the near future.
Driverless vehicles are no longer restricted to the realm of science fiction - they are in development and will be operating on our roads sooner than many would imagine.

This section defines the terms “autonomous”, “self-driving”, and “robotic” as they refer to vehicles and provides examples of each. Further, this section points out why these vehicles are so popular nowadays and why they might become indispensable for our society.

1.1         Definition of (fully) autonomous vehicles

Right now, there exists no consensus definition of autonomous vehicles. The most typical designations are: “driverless”, “(fully) autonomous”, “self-driving” or “robotic”.
Currently, the descriptions “driverless” or “fully autonomous” vehicles are representing the most common phrases by containing: a vehicle (car) with total autonomy.

As there is no consensus definition, two working definitions will be used here:

•         Definition 1: a vehicle that is designed to travel between destinations without a human operator.

•         Definition 2: a vehicle which is able to perceive its environment, decide autonomously which route to take to its destination, and conduct itself along the route it selects.

Certain milestones of autonomy must be achieved before a vehicle can be considered fully autonomous (a detailed description is mentioned in chapter 5).

A fully autonomous vehicle can be described as a vehicle, being able to navigate without any human intervention to a predetermined destination over roads that have not been adapted for its use.

For a common understanding, the terms “autonomous” and “driverless” vehicles will be used interchangeably in this report.

1.2          What does a “driverless” vehicle look like?

The concept of a driverless vehicle is not totally new.
Even in the year 1957 people thought about what future cars would look like. Fig 1 shows a common portrayal. Here we see a family of four playing a board game while their futuristic electric car drives itself. As this advert from 1957 suggests, the aspiration for self-driving cars is one that has been held for at least half of a century. The text that accompanied the original read: “ELECTRICITY MAY BE THE DRIVER. One day your car may speed along an electric super-highway, its speed and steering automatically controlled by electronic devices embedded in the road. Highways will be made safe by electricity! No traffic jams…no collisions…no driver fatigue.”

Fig 1: Imagination of a self-driving car from 1957 [3]

However, when today people are asked what they imagine driverless vehicles to be like, their responses may differ depending on their generation and their knowledge of current driverless car engineering.
The younger and elderly generation imagine “robotic vehicles” when they think about driverless vehicles. As this description consists of the two terms “robotic” and “vehicle”, many adult (and especially elderly) people envision a robot driving a conventional car. An illustration is shown in Fig 2. This figure shows a robot trying to drive a vehicle during the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency’s (DARPA’s) Robotic Challenge.

This challenge is a competition between teams of robot and software engineers who are trying to develop robots capable of assisting humans in responding to natural and man-made disasters. It was designed to be extremely difficult. Participating teams, representing some of the most advanced robotics research and development organizations in the world, collaborate and innovate on a very short timeline to develop the hardware, software, sensors, and human-machine control interfaces that will enable their robots to complete a series of challenge tasks selected by DARPA for their relevance to disaster response [4].

While the elderly generation imagines a robot (more or less a humanoid one) driving a conventional car, the younger generation thinks about a robot that can transform itself into a conventional car. This conceptualization might be primarily informed by popular movies like “The Transformers”, as it can be seen in Fig 3. At least from today’s point of view, we are far away from such a technology and it might be questionable if we will ever develop such a technology.

Fig 2: What people have in mind when they think about “robotic cars"- a car driven by a robot during the "DARPA"- challenge [5]

Fig 3: A robot that can transform itself into a car [5]

Today’s autonomous cars - or “robotic vehicles”- neither consist of a humanoid robot driving a vehicle, nor a robot transforming itself into a vehicle. Rather, it looks more or less like a conventional vehicle and consists of an array of sensors, actuators, computers, power electronics and communication tools. That’s the reason why the term “robotic vehicle” is not typically applied to contemporary autonomous vehicles. On the one hand it is obvious that these vehicles look and ride like conventional ones, but on the other hand people feel uneasy when they think about robots. Who wants to have a creepy ride?

It’s the same reason why unmanned public transport systems (i.e. subways) are also not called “robotic subways”.

Instead of using the term “robotic”, they are mostly named as "autonomous".

Autonomous vehicles look like usual vehicles we drive today, taking over from the driver under certain circumstances.
Fully autonomous or self-driving vehicles are more advanced. The vehicle will do all the driving, using the same system of sensors, radar and GPS mapping that autonomous vehicles employ.

In the context of this book, the term “fully autonomous vehicles” refers to automobiles that are powered by autonomous technologies and are capable of travelling without human control of the vehicle.

Currently, nearly every car manufacturer is working hard on the development and implementation of such vehicles. At the moment they can be identified by their sensors, which are necessary and mostly placed on the top of the vehicle. But even this recognition feature will disappear within the coming years.

Right now, one of the most popular autonomous vehicles are the driverless cars from Google, which are showed in Fig 4 and Fig 5.

Fig 4: Google's self-driving car (newest generation) [6]

Fig 5: Google's self-driving car (earlier generation) [7]

So, how far away are we today from the visions from the early 1950’s (shown in Fig 1)?
                It seems like we are not that far away!

So don’t worry if you see a vehicle coming down the street with nobody sitting inside. It might be a driverless one!

1.3          Why are autonomous vehicles important now?

Much like electric vehicles (EVs), autonomous vehicles may seem like a very recent initiative but were first developed years ago. The idea of driverless cars already existed several decades ago (as described in the previous chapter).
Experiments have been conducted on automating cars since at least the 1920s [8]. Fig 6 shows a selection of the history of autonomous cars.

Fig 6: History of developments of autonomous vehicles

Today, every major commercial automaker is engaged in research in this area. The introduction of fully autonomous vehicles to the general market is being predicted to occur within five to 20 years.

In 1961, we predicted that cars would be directed by a punched tape so you could sleep behind the wheel (compare Fig 7). And in 1967, we anticipated you could twirl a dial on a car’s dashboard, set it to your destination, and then sit back to read the morning paper on the way to work. But maybe this time it’s for real (Popular Science, 2015 [9]).

Fig 7: The Urbmobile - From the Popular Science archives [9]

What’s the differences between earlier notions, like in the early 50’s, and today? Why should they be available now but were not in earlier days?

Nowadays, the technology appears close to commercial introduction and maturity. This stands in contrast to earlier decades in part because global megatrends have huge influences on our mobility and on our vehicle concepts.

These global megatrends include: global environmental stress, globalization, urbanization and megacities, demographic change and the contemporary digital lifestyle.

Today, there are around 1 billion automobiles in use worldwide. This large number of vehicles has caused and continues to cause a series of major issues in our society, like greenhouse gas emissions, air pollution, oil depletion, energy insecurity and population growth.

The focus of interest has shifted towards efficient and fast transport in urban areas - individual transport will still remain in a multi-modal transport scenario.

Further, the development of the world’s population and urbanization is playing a major role, as there will be a strong shift towards urban population until the year 2050, according to several reports from the United Nations. This development is visualized in Fig 8, which shows the development of the urban and rural population of the world from 1950 through 2050 projections. This draft highlights the trend to move in big cities - a trend, which is still unbroken!

In 1800, only about 3% of the world’s population lived in urban areas. Today nearly 54% of the world’s population is located in urban areas. By 2025, there will be 29 megacities (cities that have a population over 10 million people), most of them in developing countries. By 2050, over 70% of the world’s population will live in big cities.

Fig 8: Development of urban vs. rural population worldwide [10]

Fig 9 demonstrates the influence of the demographic change on the mobility of the future. The trend towards urbanization influences the ability to support people to get hassle-free from A to B. Additionally demographic change has a massive impact on the need for zero accidents, as the safe mobility of elderly people has to be managed. Efficient and zero-impact transportation will be one of the key challenges of our society.

Fig 9: Global megatrends strongly influence our future

Major trends like connectivity, shared mobility, automated driving, light weight vehicles, consumers’ increasing levels of digital experience and alternative fuels will have a massive impact of the future of the automotive industry.

These facts have huge consequences for our automobile manufacturing industry in general, but city vehicles will get influenced most by increasing regulations that will continue to require them to perform "better" than today!

Future vehicles need to be able to meet the regulatory requirements, mentioned above. Thus, they need to offer the following characteristics: connectivity, efficiency, zero impact on the environment, safety, partly/fully autonomous driving (see Fig 10).

Fig 10: Major trends will impact the future of the automobile

Worldwide industry and government are forced to consider alternative and sustainable solutions for transportation.
Vehicles driven by alternative drive trains offer unique advantages concerning energy efficiency, emissions reductions, and reduced petroleum use. Thus, they have become a research focus around the world. Decarbonizing transport is proving to be one of the largest research and development projects of the early 21st century. Low-carbon technologies are therefore rapidly advancing, with petrol and diesel hybrids (HEV), plug-in hybrids (PHEV), battery electric (BEV), and hydrogen fuel cell (FCEV) being developed by nearly every major manufacturer.

A BEV is an EV that utilizes chemical energy stored in rechargeable battery packs. EVs use electric motors instead of, or in addition to, internal combustion engines (ICE). Vehicles using both electric motors and ICEs are called HEVs and are usually not considered pure BEVs. HEVs with batteries that can be charged and used without their ICE are called PHEVs and are pure BEVs while they are not burning fuel. FCEVs use hydrogen gas to power an electric motor (Dictionary of Environmental Science and Technology [11]).

Electric driven vehicles, including BEVs, HEVs, PHEVs, FCEVs (further referred as xEVs in this book), are seen as one way of reducing oil use and GHG emissions and to improve local air quality.

All of the global megatrends mentioned above and their resulting requirements lead to two major trends in the car manufacturing industry:

•         electrification of the drive train and

•         fully automated (autonomous) driving.

Currently, the car manufacturing industry is facing the electrification of the drive train as well as autonomous driving.

The electrification of the drive train simplifies the introduction of autonomous vehicles. This was not the case in the early 50’s, as the internal combustion engine (ICE) was the dominating propulsion force and progress on EVs haven’t been available in that dimension which it is today.

The IEA [12] reports that there were approximately 700,000 BEVs and PHEVs on the streets (May 1st, 2015). That number is expected to reach the 1 million mark by the end of 2015. There are predictions that the EV market will reach 8% of total car sales by 2020 (2.5M BEVs, 3.1M PHEVs and 6.5M HEVs).

Thanks to the implementation of xEVs, autonomous driving is becoming more realistic than ever.

2        Benefits and societal impacts of autonomous driving

2.1         The promises of autonomous driving

The operation of autonomous vehicles is inherently different from vehicles operated by human drivers, as they can be programmed to be much more efficient in terms of fuel economy or improved reaction times.
By programming them not to break traffic rules, the need for traffic enforcement patrols will be greatly reduced or eliminated.
They can deliver unlicensed drivers or elderly people to their destinations.
Most of all, they promise to change our system of mobility as we know it today: away from car-owning, towards car-sharing. This enables new mobility concepts, which wouldn’t be possible without these vehicles.

This section emphasizes some of the largest benefits that have been identified in existing research areas.

As already described in the introduction (compare chapter 1), climate change plays a key role when it comes to the development of future vehicles. Thus, one of the biggest promises of autonomous driving is the forecast that these cars will become more fuel efficient and consequently more eco-friendly.

Intimately connected with that is the electrification of the drivetrain, which is still ongoing and will play a major role in future vehicles.

Based off of a forecast of U.S. car emissions and gasoline prices in 2030, sustainable energy researchers at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory in California found that the emissions of a self-driving taxi would be 63-82% lower than those of a privately owned hybrid electric car, and 90% lower than today’s privately owned gasoline cars.
If by 2030 just five percent, or 800,000, of vehicles, were converted to robot-taxis, it would save 7 million barrels of oil per year and prevent up to 2.4 million metric tons of CO₂ emissions per year (Spectrum, 2015 [13]).

Autonomous vehicles promise to be more efficient to use on roadways through shorter headway control, thus they can travel in much closer formation than conventional vehicles.

This also affects the reduction of congestion by controlling the flow of traffic, as these vehicles allow for smoother braking and fine speed adjustments of following vehicles. Thus, it has an impact on fuel savings due to the fact that the car knows what kind of load will be placed on the engine and adapts accordingly.

By having an impact on the entire transportation system, autonomous driving enables automated platoon driving (platoons decrease the distances between cars using electronic, and possibly mechanical, coupling, which would allow many cars to accelerate or brake simultaneously.). Transportation efficiency could be improved by automating platoon driving of trucks and buses (on the highway). Because the following vehicles can closely and accurately track the vehicle at the head, it eliminates any wasteful driving and enables eco-driving. Fuel economy could be increased (mainly through reduced air resistance of shared slipstreams), long-distance journeys could be arranged, off peak travel times (as autonomous trucks could travel non-stop) and truck drivers wouldn’t be needed any more (though this would create a disadvantage too in terms of unemployment). As this ability also might require special express lanes, there might be a need for additional infrastructure to deal with autonomous trucks. If vehicles are able to travel closer together, the system’s fuel and congestion savings rise further, and some experts expect a significant increase in highway capacity on existing lanes [14].

This significant increase in highway capacity might also reduce the need for traffic policing. Further, with safer travel at higher speeds, higher speed limits are also foreseeable.

Autonomous driving also has an impact on the comfort of the “driver” itself, which won’t be needed in the function as operator/driver anymore. Additionally, it will enable dramatic increases in distance traveled per day, as long distance journeys could be arranged now. Thus, “drivers” will have more freedom and free time. Once the technology is truly perfected, time previously spend on travel can instead be put to use for working or relaxing.

But the “driver” won’t only profit in terms of free time, as new car comfort features will greatly improve user experience and user productivity. U.S. drivers spend an average of 75 billion hours each year on the road, which can now be put to good use. Whether people choose to spend this time eating, sleeping, watching TV, reading the newspaper, working, or simply conversing, it should result in significantly de-stressing the average commute and life in general [15].

Autonomous driving also enables more mobility for elderly and disabled people who otherwise might not have been able to drive a car anymore.

In the future, mobility providers like “Car 2 Go”, “Zipcar”, etc. (just to mention a few of them) shall benefit from this technology - vehicles could come to customers, pick them up, drop them off and then return to their holding area.

Autonomous vehicles will not only have an impact on the passenger car industry and on freight transportation, it will also influence the agriculture sector. For example, like autonomous tractors could be used for “precision farming”.

Perhaps the most significant benefit from high levels of automation in vehicles will be improved safety, because autonomous vehicles have the potential to dramatically reduce crashes. Thus, car safety will strongly increase in terms of fewer traffic fatalities due the fact that right now nearly all accidents are caused by human error. Furthermore, autonomous vehicles would have a limited impact on hospital volumes and revenues.

Fig 11 highlights the magnitude of automobile crashes in the United States. There are over 30,000 fatal crashes every year in the U.S. Several studies have demonstrated that the annual economic costs of crashes in the U.S. amount to more than $300 billion (€330 billion) [16].

Fig 11: U.S. crash motor vehicle scope and selected human and environmental factor involvement [18] [19]

As a former National Highway Traffic Safety Administration  official noted, humans are surprisingly good at driving and cause far fewer accidents than we probably would expect [17].

Nevertheless, driver error is believed to be the main reason behind over 90% of all crashes. Over 40% of these fatal crashes involve alcohol, distraction, fatigue, drug involvement, etc. [18].
Volvo categorizes these driver mistakes under “the 4Ds”: distraction, drowsiness, drunkenness, and driver error [17].

Reducing crashes also has an economic benefit. A study, conducted by the U.S. Center for Transportation [19], assumes three autonomous vehicle market-penetration shares: 10%, 50% and 90% and their resulting impact on economy. These are assumed to represent not only market shares, but technological improvements over time, since it could take many years for the U.S. to see high penetration rates.

Fig 12 summarizes all of these estimated impacts, suggesting economic benefits reaching $201 billion (€225 billion) when autonomous vehicles are at a 90% market penetration rate.
Meaningful congestion benefits are estimated to accrue to all travelers early on, while the magnitude of crash benefits grows over time. For example, at the 10% market penetration level congestion savings represent 66% of benefits and crash savings represent 21% of benefits, whereas at the 90% penetration rate these figures are 33% and 58%, respectively,. When comprehensive crash costs are included, overall crash savings jump by more than a factor of three [18] [19].

Further, Fig 12 illuminates autonomous vehicles’ social benefits, but it is also important to anticipate the privately realized benefits of autonomous vehicles ownership and use. These benefits are taking into account monetary savings from reduced fuel use and insurance, along with several levels of daily parking savings and (hourly) travel time savings.

Fig 12: Estimates of annual economic benefits (U.S.) [18] [19] [1]

Clearly, not everyone will be happy with these changes in terms of safety such as steelmakers, who would see a fall in demand for their products, vehicle repair- and maintenance shops, who could lose business, but also the medical sector and pharmacy, who would also be influenced by the decreasing amount of accident victims. Aside from social benefits, autonomous vehicles need to generate a real economic return for both the consumers paying for the technology as well as the industry and the government that will invest billions of dollars in developing it (see Fig 13).

Fig 13: Illustration of the economic return trough autonomous vehicles in the U.S.

Researchers at Morgan Stanley believe that the U.S. economy can save about $1.3 trillion (€1.5 trillion) per year once autonomous cars become regularly adopted [15]. This represents around 8% of the U.S. gross domestic product
(compare Fig 13).

In conclusion, the promises of autonomous driving include the following:

•         use of the ongoing electrification of the drive train

•         increase of efficiency

•         reductions in fuel consumption (fossil)

•         environmental friendliness

•         platooning (fright transport)

•         reductions in traffic congestion

•         significant increases in highway capacity

•         reduced need for traffic policing

•         higher speed limits

•         increases in trip distances and decreases in travel times

•         increased driver comfort via time savings

•         more freedom and free time of the driver

•         increases in productivity of the passengers

•         more mobility for elderly and disabled person

•         support for the demand for mobility providers

•         increases in car safety

•         potential to reduce crashes and accidents

•         real, positive economic return

2.2         The impacts of autonomous driving

There are several potential benefits and promises of autonomous driving (compare section 2.1.). These benefits will not only have an impact on the automotive sector; they will greatly influence mobility as we know it and will further influence nearly every sector of our live.

This chapter deals with the potential impacts of autonomous driving and emphasizes the different sectors that may be influenced.

"Driving" with your car by playing board games at the same time, was a kind of dream a few decades ago (see Fig 1). Nowadays autonomous driving is real and it is big.
Not a single day goes by without news about autonomous driving. Some recent newspaper excerpts are:

•         “Driverless cars trialed on UK roads for first time in four towns and cities”,

•         “It’s 2015, self-driving cars are more than a promise”, etc.

The societal impact of autonomous driving will be primarily in these areas:

•         car design

•         car ownership

•         traffic and parking

•         transportation on demand

•         urban planning

•         access for all

•         business models within the transportation sector and

•         safety

The ongoing trend towards the electrification of the drive train (including vehicles like BEV’s, (P)HEVs, FCEV(s), etc.), eases the introduction of autonomous vehicles, as the amount of software and power electronics is still increasing.
On the one hand, the implementation of xEVs is pushing the development and introduction of autonomous driving. On the other hand, the technique, necessary for autonomous driving requires electrified vehicles.

Nearly 40 years ago, the first piece of software used in a vehicle was used to control the ignition of the engine [20].

The first software systems in vehicles were local and did not have any communication between different systems. Since then a lot has happened and today almost all new functionality involves advanced control of electronics and software [12].

The automotive industry is traditionally a mechanical industry. Mechanics is still the foundation of the vehicle, however the amount of software and electronics is increasing rapidly. Thus, the automotive industry is facing a challenge.

In 2004, 23% of the overall cost of high-end cars was related to the Electrical/Electronic system [21].
This amount was believed to increase to 35% in 2010 [22].
Today up to 90% of all new innovations in a car are realized with electronics and software [23].

In today's commercial vehicles driven by an ICE, the proportion of electrical, electronic and IT components is between 20 and 35%. In xEVs, this share will increase to up to 70%. This includes around 70 main control units with more than 13,000 electronic devices. In the future, every second euro/dollar is spent on the production for electronics. Currently, the share of electronic components to the manufacturing cost is around 30%. By 2017 it will grow to 35% and will still increase to 50% in 2030 [12].

This emphasizes the importance of that topic.

Car manufacturers can’t ignore this trend of autonomous driving anymore, if they want to be ready for the future.

Right now, nearly every (major) car manufacturer is working on autonomous driving.
Electrified and autonomous vehicles will not only impact the car manufacturing industry. They will also affect the technological sector as well as the energy sector, because the demand for electricity will increase a great deal with the market penetration of such vehicles.

Besides that, the consequences for the industry but also on economic return will be enormous. Several industries will be influenced, including automotive sectors (OEMs and suppliers), mobile services, technology, energy, financial services, government and transportation. The impact of autonomous driving on these sectors is shown in an illustration made by Accenture research [24] (see Fig 14). The illustration highlights the sectors where autonomous vehicles