      
 


               .         ,    ,         .     ,     ,    ,  ,    ,          .     ,    ,       .      , ,          .





      





 1.     





1.1     


      ,        ,    .         .              .

  XIX  . ,    , : ...       .       ,                       ;       (Loyd J.S. Reflections Suggested by a Perusal of Mr. J. Horsley Palmer's Pamphlet on the Money Market. L., 1837).

          ,      -   (   http://www.big-soviet.ru/).

        ,    ,   ,     .

              .        :

?  (revival),

?  (expansion),

?  (recession)

?  (contraction) (Mitchell W.C. Business Cycles, the Problem and Its Setting. National Bureau of Economic Research. 1927.).

.         :

?  (prosperity),

?  (recession),

?  (depression),

?  (recovery).

..   ..  (  .,   . .   .: 16- ..  .:   , 2001.  688 .  c. 396298)          :

?  ()   ,

?  ()    .

  (Schumpeter J.A. Business Cycles. McGraw-Hill Book Co. N.Y., 1939. Vol. I. p. 207209),  (Hansen A.H. Economic Stabilization in an Unbalanced World. Harcourt. Brace and Co. 1932. Ch. VI.)    ,                  ,      ,      .                      ,        ,    ,     .

  . - (- .. .   .   .   .  ., 1997.  574 .)         ,     ,  ,       .         ,               .

     : ,   .        :

?     (     ,  34 );

?     (  - ,  711 );

?     (,  1525 );

?      4560 .

   ( . )  34     1920-    . .           ,      .         .

      711  ( . )     .              ,         .            .            .           .

   .       :

?       ;

?  ,     ,  ;

?  ,    /    ;

?       .

     1525    ,            ( ..      :   / .. .  .: , 1984.  223 .).

  .     ,       .        .

           4560 .     -       ,         ( .      .   / . .  .: , 2002.  768 .).

  ..         .  ,           .          ,  ,  ,    .  ,           ,         .

..    20-  XX       ,       .   -      , , ,   140         ( ..   . //  . 1925. . I. . 1.  . 2879.):

?        80-   90- . XVIII .   18101817 .;

?        18101817 .   18441851 .;

?        18441855 .   18701875 .;

?        18701875 .   18901896 .;

?        18911896 .   19141920 .;

?         19141920 .

        .         .

         .  ( .   .  .: , 1982.  454 .),        ..     .     . .

     ,       ,       .

,        ,  ,       .      ,            .     ,         ( ..         , ..., 08.00.05.  2014.  . 3334).

 ,                .          ,        ( ..   :      .  . 2-, .  .  .: , 2001.  296 .  c. 146).

         (  : . : , 2003.  832 .).        : , , , .

?       .

?   ()            .

?   ()    .

?   ()      .

       ,    ,    .        ,       ( ..     . //    .  .: , 2000.  224 .).

           ,        .             .

       ,      , ..     .      ,  ,   ,     .

        .       ,         ,          .        .

          .      ,           .             .

        .     ,          , ,        .

      ,                       .               - ,  ,    ,        .

  ..  (Hanks S.H. The Organization Life Cycle: Integrating 8. Content and Process // Journal of Small Business Strategy.  1990.   1.  p. 113.),       ,    ,   ,             .          ,         .     ,          ,     .

  ..  ( ..          / ..  //    .  2011.   2.  . 1317.)


 ..  ( ..   :            / ..  //     .  2013.  . 16.   11 (114).  . 5662.),          ,       .        ,       .           .    ,        ,            .

        ,        ,    ,  .          :   ,   ,  .

 ,            ,  ,   ,      ,        .

         .            .      .  1972    Harvard Business Review         .             (),    ( ),   ,   ,    (Greiner L. E. Evolution and Revolution as Organizations Grow // Harvard Business Review. 1972. Jul-Aug. 1988. May-Jun).

      (48 )         .  ,          .

?  1.       .

?  2.      .

?  3.       .

?  4.      .

?  5.       .

     ,  , , , .  .          ( ..,  ..,  .. . .;  ..,  ..        //  . 2007.  4. . 97110) ,   ,       ,      ,    .     .     1.








. 1      

.    ,    :    ,   ,     .

 ,         ,  . .        ,       ,         ,         .     ,       ,      .   ,         ,  .      ,   ,   ,       .    10 : , , -, , , , , , , .                  .

           ,    .            .    ,    ,        .

.  ,            .  ,       .    PAEI,    ,  P  , A  , E  , I  .            .             .   PAEI    2.








. 2   PAEI 

  ,     . , ..  ( ..     :  / .. .  3- .  .:   , 2009.  480 .)    ,          : , , , , .                ,      .                .     .

    : , ,  ,  ,  ,  , ,    ,  , .

   ,     .            60-    ( 1).

 1        











*    ( ..        ,  / . .  //   .  2011.   215.  . 123;  ..      / . . , . .  // i .  2011.   2.  . 6872;  ..        / ..  //  2011 16 . 5458;  ..     :      / .. :  .  . . . : 2010. . 46)

     .   .  ( ..   / .. , .. .  .: , 1998.  511 .),         .       ,    .               .

   ,      ,     .

        ,   .     ,   ,     ,     .

       ,        ,    .   ,  ,          .

     ,                .

       : , , , , , .

 ..   ..  ( ..       /  . . ..,  ..  .: . , 1996.  510 .)         , ,   ,       .

   ..  ( ..          / ..  //    .  2011.   2.  . 1317.),       : , , ,   .       ,   .    ,                  .      .         .

..  (Hanks S.H. The Organization Life Cycle: Integrating 8. Content and Process // Journal of Small Business Strategy.  1990.   1.  p. 113.)   ,    :  ,  ,   ,    .   ,            .

..  ( ..       :      (, 29 . 2002 .) / .. .  : - , 2002.  89 .),   .. ,     ,      .      ,         :

?   ,   ;

?  - ,         ;

?   ,      ;

?   ,   ,     ();

?   ,      ;

?   ,         ,      .

                    .           ,  , ,     .

    ..       : , , ,  , .

..  (  [] :  / .. . .: -, 2000. 432 .)         , , , , .

 ,           ,     .

, ..  ( ..         , ..., 08.00.05, 2017  .19)       ..  (Fletcher D.E. Life-making or risk taking? Co-partnership and family business start-ups, under review International Small Business Journal, Special Issue on Family firms, 2008),        ,     ,    . ,      : , ,  , ,   ,  .

           :  ,  ,   .      :   ,   ,  ,  .

   ..  ( .. -       , ..., 08.00.10, 2018.  .1213),          .      ,          .      , ,     .         .        ,            ,         .  ,             , ..       .

  ..  ( ..      - , , ..., 08.00.05, 2016.  .1314)      , ,          -   ,  , .         - , ..       .        .          ,    .      ,      .

..                          ( ..,   , i i i i i i ii i. ii. i. i, 2005).

  ( ..  .  :    .: , 2016.  .11.) ,        20 ,        4050 .   ,       200 ,       .   2  3              .

 2        











 3        






*    ( ..,  ..       ,  , 4, 2007;  ..  .  .  .:  (), 2016.  . 25;  ..       :      . //   .  2 (33).  2017  . 256259).

          ,             .     .      .         .        .                 .

 ,                   ,  ,  ,  , ,   .

         .           .       .

           ,         ,          .

            ,  , ,   .        .        ,   ,  .  ,      600, 59, 54, 19, 8 .

 I       .   ,   ,     .      ,    : . , . , . , . , . , . , . , . , . , . , . , . , .. , . , .. , . , .. , . , . , . , . , . , . , .     ( ..:   .  2- . .. / . . ..  (. .)  ./    . -   .  .: 1989.  365 .;  .   .  .: , 1982.  454 .; Friedman M. The Methodology of Positive Economics. In: Essay in Positive Economics. Chicago, The University of Chicago Press. 1953; Juglar C. Des Crises commerciales. P., 1889; Spiethoff A. Krisen, Handworteibuch der Staatswissenschften, 1923).           .        ()   ().         ,            ( ..   : . . .  .: , 2004.  432 . . 910).   ,        .

 IXX      . ,    .       ,        ;  .         ( ..   / . . ..   .  . . . , . . , . .   .  .: , 1993.  543 .).

 .       ,      . ..      .

 20    .       1885  1984 .    12-  ,         .   ,        (22 ),     5   (55 ).

    . ,  1921          .  ,    -     . .     .         1980 .

C  XX          ,     .     .   . .

        ,         .    . ,  ,     . .           . .   .  ,    -        (Pugou A.C. Industrial Fluctuations. L., 1927.). . .              . ..           . .               . .        :  ,  . .  ,            ( . .   ,   .  : , 1993.  307 .  c. 251252).

. , . , .  (Samuelson P. Interactions between the multiplier analysis and the principle of acceleration // Review Economics Statistik, 1939. Vol. 21. p. 7578.; Hansen A.H. Economic Stabilization in an Unbalanced World. Harcourt. Brace and Co. 1932. Ch. VI; Hicks J. A contribution to the theory of the trade cycle. Oxford, 1950. Ch. VI),         ,    . ..   ..         2-  10    ,  (  .,   . .   .: 16- ..  .:   , 2001.  688 .  c. 296).


       .

.             (Friedman M. The Methodology of Positive Economics. In: Essay in Positive Economics. Chicago, The University of Chicago Press. 1953).

-           4.

 4    






        ,              .  ,     .

            - :

1.     ,   ,     ( )   ( ).

2.      ,                 .

                   .      ,                  .            ,       .

         .

    ..             ( 5) ( ..        , . ..., 08.00.05, 2013.  . 147).

 5           






          ,               .     ( ..       //     .  2011.  8).   -             ,       2530%     7075%      ;   1015%   8590%      ( ..    :   , , ... 08.00.05, 2007  . 61).

 , -           ,      ,      - ,   .        ,        .

,  ,          ,    ,        ,      .        .     - ,      .

 ,        :

1.         .

2.    -    .

3.      .

4.       .

5.   .

       ,     ,  ,  - ,      ,     ,   ,   ,   . ,     - :

1.   .

2.    .

3.     .

4.   .

5.  .

6.   .

7.    .

8.     .

             ,          ,  ,    .

        .       ,    ,  .

      ,       ,   , .

   ()     .            ,          .          ,             ,         -  .

  ,              .                ,        :  ,  , - .        ,  ,  ,   .




1.2       


         .  ,             ,         .

 ,               ,               . ,        ,       , , ,   .         .

.   ,        ,    .                .        .    .               .   .  ( 6).

 6        




  .


   .

   ,     (https://www.litres.ru/pages/biblio_book/?art=74093911)  .

      Visa, MasterCard, Maestro,    ,   ,     ,  PayPal, WebMoney, ., QIWI ,       .


