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   :          ,           ,      .[43 - ILO (  ). Generative AI and Jobs,  2025:      ,    ;        .]        :  2030               ,   .[44 - WEF (  ). Future of Jobs Report 2025 ( ):   ~22%    2030 ; / .    ,    .]  ,  :   ,      .     :    ,  .

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 .       .      :    ,    .    ,     ,   .     :   ,    ,   .

        ,     .            .

      .  ,  NVIDIA,    :                ,   . :    , ,     (                      ).[46 - Jensen Huang ( ), NVIDIA    (   ?    ),  , -2026.    (-claim),   .]

    ,         .   :   ,   .  ,      ,  . ,     ,   . , ,   , , .

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        .     :     .           ,   .                  .            ,    .         .         ,        .

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   ,     (https://www.litres.ru/book/raznoe/kogda-intellekt-stal-deshiovym-tom-1-chelovek-kak-ostavat-sia-nuzhn-74370257/)  .

      Visa, MasterCard, Maestro,    ,   ,     ,  PayPal, WebMoney, ., QIWI ,       .



notes








1


Tyler Cowen. In the AI age, the winners wont be the smartest. Theyll be the ones who adjust fastest. Fortune, 22 May 2026.  :    ,   .




2


      ,   , ,   ;     ,      2022 .     .




3


Sam Altman. The Gentle Singularity, 2025.            .




4


Microsoft Ignite 2024:  Microsoft 365 Copilot  ,    .




5


Andrej Karpathy. Software Is Changing (Again), 2025.  :    ,        .




6


Peng et al. The Impact of AI on Developer Productivity: Evidence from GitHub Copilot, 2023.       Copilot.




7


OpenAI. GDPval: Evaluating AI on economically valuable, real-world tasks, 2025.         .




8


Ethan Mollick, Co-Intelligence and public talks on the jagged frontier of AI capability, 2024.     .




9


Dan Luu. 95%-ile isnt that good.    ,        ,    .




10


Stanford HAI / Harvard Medical School. 2026 State of Clinical AI.      clinical AI   .




11


Garry Kasparov. Deep Thinking, 2017.   advanced chess:      ,        .




12


Michael Polanyi, The Tacit Dimension, 1966; David Autor, Polanyis Paradox and the Shape of Employment Growth, 2014.   .




13


Frederick Reichheld / Amy Gallo, Harvard Business Review.        .




14


 .      : ,    .




15


David Yang / Newo.ai, 2025.   -          .




16


Andrew Ng. AI is the new electricity  Fortune,  2016;   Stanford GSB,  2017.




17


ChatGPT  OpenAI,  2022;   100     UBS/Reuters; DALLE 2, Midjourney, Stable Diffusion, GigaChat  YandexGPT    20222023.




18


AutoGPT  BabyAGI      2023 ; Claude Computer Use, Project Mariner, Operator  Devin    20242025 .




19


Satya Nadella / Microsoft Ignite,  2024:   ,    .




20


a16z. Welcome to LLMflation; Epoch AI. LLM inference prices have fallen rapidly but unequally across tasks.




21


Sam Altman. The Gentle Singularity, 2025: intelligence too cheap to meter      .




22


Anthropic Engineering. How we built our multi-agent research system, 2025:     ,    .




23


Andrej Karpathy. Software Is Changing (Again) / Software 3.0; Zhou Hongyi         .




24


Brett King. Bank 4.0: Banking Everywhere, Never at a Bank, 2018.




25


Paul David. The Dynamo and the Computer, 1990; -    .




26


Peter Thiel ( ). Zero to One (   ), 2014;      Competition Is for Losers, The Wall Street Journal,  2014.




27


Felix Oberholzer-Gee. Better, Simpler Strategy, Harvard Business Review Press, 2021:     =   (WTP)   (WTS).




28


Warren Buffett ( ),        (FCIC), 2010:       .




29


Simon Wu ( ), Cathay Innovation. Distribution Is Oxygen. Endurance Is the Moat,  2025.




30


Ben Thompson. Aggregation Theory, Stratechery:         .




31


Yi Zhou. AI at the Edge of Transformation: Markets, Moats, and Momentum, 2026:    ,   ,      .




32


Your margin is my opportunity  ,      (Fortune, 2012);    .




33


John Maynard Keynes (  ). Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren (   ),   The Nation and Athen?um,  1930;         .  .




34


James Bessen ( ). Learning by Doing: The Real Connection between Innovation, Wages, and Wealth, Yale University Press, 2015;  Toil and Technology, IMF Finance & Development,  2015: ,     .




35


 ,  ,  2015 (: , 28.05.2015):   33 000 ? 1 600 ?  600; - 59 000 (2008) ? 17 000 ?  6 000  2018.




36


       2010-             (BLS, Occupational Outlook Handbook).




37


OpenAI. GDPval (2025), arXiv:2510.04374: 44 , 1 320  ; /  ?   ;       ;      ; /     + ~1,11,6?.




38


OpenAI. GDPval (2025).     :   +     ,        .




39


Ethan Mollick ( ),  jagged frontier     ;    .




40


OpenAI. GDPval (2025).        ,       .




41


OpenAI. GDPval (2025).        ,   :  ,   .




42


Andrej Karpathy ( ).  AI- 342   (    , LLM- 010), ~2026. -,   ;  .




43


ILO (  ). Generative AI and Jobs,  2025:      ,    ;        .




44


WEF (  ). Future of Jobs Report 2025 ( ):   ~22%    2030 ; / .    ,    .




45


William Stanley Jevons (  ). The Coal Question, 1865:        .  .




46


Jensen Huang ( ), NVIDIA    (   ?    ),  , -2026.    (-claim),   .


