 .     -:  20272035
 


-  ,  ,          ,     .            ,   ,   ?      : 20272035       , ,  , ,    ,      :   ,    .     ,     -   .        3.0,  ,   :  MITR           ,          ;  INDRA    .   : , , , . AGI, ASI, AI Safety, AI control  





 

 .     -:  20272035





.  : ,        



 :             ,          ,    ,     .




 :     (20252026)


       ,         -.     XIX             .          ,      .           ,     ,    ,    .    ,     ,  ,              ,      ,     .

 20252026     ,            .

       ,       .  ,     ,  2020     5      5,2  ([], Epoch AI,   05.02.2026),        2010    45    (  ?4,14,4; [], Epoch AI, 2024).             10    ([], a16z LLMflation, 12.11.2024;   Epoch AI  12.03.2025   9  900         ).           89131 ;   Claude Opus 4.6    12  ( METR,  2026 ),    2026  Claude Mythos Preview   16- ,    METR    ([], METR,   228  TH1.1,  2026 ).       (DeepSeek, Qwen, Kimi, GLM)         ([], International AI Safety Report, 03.02.2026),    Epoch AI   2026      4  ([], Epoch AI, 29.05.2026),     Vercel 29 %      4 %      2026    56 %    ([],         2026 ).

    20252026      ,       :             .    MCP,    Agentic AI Foundation  Linux Foundation,   2025    10 000    97      ([], Anthropic,  2025 ),    300   ,      2025  41 %         ([], Stacklok, State of MCP 2026,  2026).     57,3 %  1 340           ([], LangChain, State of Agent Engineering,  18.1102.12.2025).         :      Claude Code   2026   $2,5  ([],  Anthropic   Series G, 12.02.2026),      51 %           ([], Menlo Ventures,  600 - , 20.11.2024).   2026   Santander    Mastercard      ,  -,           ([], - Santander  Mastercard, 02.03.2026),    AP2  Google   60  ([],  Google, 16.09.2025),     x402   2026    165      $50        (    Coinbase,  2026 ;    ).            OpenClaw ( 380 000   GitHub   2026   392 000  14.10.2026    13 000     ClawHub, [], GitHub API, 14.10.2026; Neurohive, 18.03.2026)  Hermes Agent  Nous Research      ( 2026 , []),     ,     .

      .      .

  ,              ,     API,               (human-in-the-loop).   70    -    20252026   37  (52,9 %)          ([],   -, 40-  2026 ;     ,    ).                (approval fatigue,       25.06.2026     :        ).              (     ).      ,     ,   ,           .

   20252026        :

 

  2026    Cursor,      Opus 4.6,   API      PocketOS    ,      (   Railway   ),          ([],   PocketOS   Railway, 25.04.2026; AI Incident Database,   1469;  Lumenova, 25.08.2026).

 

  2026   OpenAI GPT-5.6 Sol                 ,    Codex  OpenAI    ([],   13.07.2026   OpenAI 16.07.2026).

 

  2025    Amazon Kiro   Financial Times     Amazon,  13-   AWS Cost Explorer     ; Amazon  ,          (  FT   Amazon,  2026 ; AI Incident Database,   1442).

 

  2025        Project Vend,  Anthropic   Andon Labs,   The Wall Street Journal        Claudius        ([],  Anthropic Project Vend: Phase two   The Wall Street Journal, 18.12.2025).

 

   Gravitee (919   ,    ), 88 %          ,    - ([], Gravitee, State of AI Agent Security 2026, 04.02.2026),   108   100  ( )  49 % ,   ,       ,     ([], VentureBeat,    2026 ,   2026 ).    1 412    MCP     38,7 %     ([],  Bloomberry, 24.02.2026;    DreamFactory, 03.03.2026).

       ,  .    1956      :       ,        .   ,         ,     ,      .         2026        ([],   Mercatus Center Governing Agentic AI, 05.03.2026),                           53.1        .

       .     ,     .        2026 ? 2035:    ,      ,      ,   ?

      .           :      ,    ,    .




     


  20242026               .         (e/acc), ,        .           :   2026            ,     ,       ([],  Are We Truly in Control of AI?   , , 09.09.2026);  ,      Digital World     2026 , ,         ,   ,      ,    1020 % ([], AFP  UN News, 2122.04.2026;  1020 %   BBC Radio 4,  2024 );     2025     -,           ([],  Towards Humanist Superintelligence, 06.11.2025;   2025 ).

                   .                    :                   .        -     ,          ,     20242026      (Anthropic  Redwood Research,  2024 )        ( 2026 ) ([], Greenblatt et al., Alignment faking, 18.12.2024; Gardner-Challis et al., arXiv 2602.20628, 24.02.2026).

      ,        (axiom_agi     registry/product-line.json    ;          [],          []).

       ,   .            ,  ,      ,              (MCP, REST, AP2,  )  ,    .            :               .

            MITR     SMT- (core/verification/z3_gate.py).         :

 

       ,     UNSAT (              );

 

   ,    SAT,      ,              .

   P4     SMT-  0,74 ,         3,3  ([], ADR-0282,  26.09.2026  17 ;   147 14.10.2026  19   0,95  4,3 ,  smt_latency_paper.jsonl),      62  (50   12 )   $0      ([], ADR-0262).      ,        - SHA-256     OpenTimestamps ([]),  ,    (verify_chain_standalone.py --replay:     ,    MITR),      1602  1602  30.09.2026  4958  4958  14.10.2026 ([], ADR-0281).      MITR;      .

         ,       2035 ,         ,        ():

   .   (RLM 108109):                  (   ,             :     )      ( ,          ).

     (VSM)   :  ,                          .     S1     (    ), S2    (MCP, A2A, AP2), S3     , S3*        (  ,     MITR), S4   ,        (   INDRA),  S5    ,    ,   .     .    Metaphorum 2026 (1719.09.2026,   . ),         ;                 ,    MITR        ?   (ADR-0273).

     :   . .  (RLM 29, 72, 150),             ,      -  MITR;     . .  (RLM 6, 36)         INDRA;      () . .  1960-      Cybersyn .  (19711973)            2035 .

   . .  (RLM 226227)   . .   .  (RLM 19, 46, 79, 182, 185):       -       (:         ),            ,   2035        .

             ,       .     2026        (    )  4,2  ([],        / Techora,  2026 ),         ,       4  (       expert.ru, 20252026 ),          9 %   ([],  - 1   û  ComNews, 1920.03.2026;   ).       ,      2026      $700     ,   2025  ([],   Alphabet, Meta, Amazon, Microsoft  I  2026 ;  Om Malik, 30.04.2026),       2035  .

       :       2026   2030     ,              (S3*),   (S4)        (S5).    MITR      (GPU)          (CPU)       (0,740,95     26.0914.10.2026).   ,                         ,        ,         .




  (truth_marking):       


        :           ,      ,          .  ,     ,     ,       .

       .          (truth_marking),    registry/product-line.json.   ,          ,      :

[] (    ):    ,        147,  ,   (ADR)         .          ,      (  ),         .

[] ( ):      ,        .         ( ,     )    .

[] (   ):        ,            .         .

[:  A / B / C | : <, >] ( ):       2026 ? 2035 .       ,   2026          ,       ,   ,     .

            ,  2035      (;    ;    ;    ; ,    )     :

 

 A ( ):

    ;          ;       ,         ( .   .   

AI as Normal Technology

,   .        2 %   ,  .   . ).    2028 :     METR   ,   Gartner    40 %     2027        50 %    .

 

 B (      ):

      45   ,        10   ,        37       (  Epoch AI  METR,   AI Futures Project 2026       Automated Coder      2028  (I )    2027  ( 16.08.2026),    Metaculus  25 %  AGI  2029   50 %  2033 ,   ).       (S1S2),      ,    (S5).    2028 :      METR        15 %         Gartner.

 

 C ():

       ,             ( . , . ,  AI 2027 .   ,   Epoch GATE,     20 %     30 % ).    2028 :   Automated Coder  2028  (   AI Futures Project   16.08.2026   2027 ,     ),      5 %          5 % .

  ,    ,   ,            .    (AI 2027)          2025     :   ,          ,      .    ,     2030     A,    B     C,            . ,     (S3*)     (S4)           ,     .

 ,             ,     :

 

   2026    MITR       ADR-0273 (   / ,  /      ,      ),         98  

0    98

([], ADR-0273).      ,        ( 11   17).

 

   09.10.2026      gate_mode_report.py --six   147   

1  6

       ([],   09.10.2026,     --date 2026-10-09),       1    7    ([]),     2 (14     50          )    0  14  ([],  31.10.2026).

 

       INDRA   30.09.2026 

0  5

   AE ([],  AC  31.10.2026,  DE  12.11.2026),                  ,        .

 

      ([]   2026 ):     MITR     ,       ,               ([]).

     ,      (0,74      26.09, 19    MITR/policies/contracts/, 4958  4958 ,      14.10,   ,        305  ADR-0275),  ,   ,          .




       


      (17 )   - :

 

 I.  2026 ? 2035 ( 15):

           ( 1),             CPU ( 2),           20252026  ( 3),         ( 4),        ( 5).

 

 II. :    ( 67):

             ( 6),    .  ,     .  (S1S5, S3*,  ),   . .     ( 7).

 

 III.  MITR   ,    ( 812):

               ( 8),    SMT- z3_gate.py ( 9),    SHA-256,   OpenTimestamps     ( 10),        ( 11),       ,         ( 12).

 

 IV.  INDRA     ( 1314):

   (Clean-room)         ( 13),     INDRA ? MITR,          ( 14).

 

 V. , ,   ( 1517):

   (   117, . 53.1  , EU AI Act 2026/1744,   )    ( 15),            ( 16),   , ,     2035        ( 17).

 

 :

   ( ),    ( ),   ( ),    2035    ( )       ( ).

     ,      ,           :

 .1       





   

  2026  ([], )

    

  ( )



1

  (CTO),       

  PocketOS  Cursor  Opus 4.6 (AI Incident Database,   1469,  2026); 88 %    (  Gravitee, 04.02.2026); 49 %          (VentureBeat,  2026); 38,7 %   MCP   ( Bloomberry, 24.02.2026)

    (approval fatigue)  ,     ,      

 1, 3, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12



2

 ,    (Tier-2,  0,520  ?)

  ISO       CGL (  2026)        E&O   (Armilla, 21.01.2026); 56 %               , 58 % (    Techora, 02.09.2026, );     (TCO)    

        . 53.1  ;       ;      

 4, 15, 16, 17



3

    (CISO),  ,  

     117 (  24.08.2026,   01.03.2027):  ,  ,     ;        9 %   ( 1,  2026)

            ;       (CPU)     GPU

 2, 10, 13, 14, 15



4

,  ,  

 Gartner ( 2025):  40 %       2027  -      ;     (guardian agents)  1015 %   2030  (- Gartner, 11.06.2025)   $24,2       2025  (PitchBook)

 ,   2035       (S1)    (S3*)   (S4);    P1P5   

 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 16



5

, ,     

   ,      (   CAC/NDRC/MIIT  08.05.2026;        ,   CSA   15.07.2026);      2026/1744 (Annex III  02.12.2027);      109   (I  2026);     243-  26.07.2026 (   01.09.2026);       

       ,      ,       

 5, 7, 15, 17



6

-       

    2225        19 %   (Stanford Digital Economy Lab, Brynjolfsson, Chandar, Chen, . 12.08.2026;    08.2025  13 %);  WEF ( 92    170     2030 )     30 %   (McKinsey)

   ,        :    S5 ( ,  ,    )

 4, 6, 17



7

  , , 

    (. ,  2026; . , 2026)      (Gradual Disempowerment,    ,  2025)

                       VSM

 6, 7, 9, 11, 12, 17




     


       ,      :           ,     ,    .

        (  )       .           :

 

    :

          ,       (asi5.ru/console/verify/:  ,   OpenTimestamps,   )      (verify_chain_standalone.py --replay),       .                        Bitcoin; ,      ,   SMT-LIB            14.10.2026  4958.

 

  :

            ([], [], [], []),     .      01.04.2027        .

 

   (2027 ? 2035):

        (115).        :               02.12.2027 (    EU AI Act Annex III), 02.08.2028 (  2028), 2030  (  )  2035  (  2035)             ,         .

            :

  ,   .

  ;   .

  ,   .

      1   ,        2035 .




 I.  2026 ? 2035





 1. :  ,      



 :       ,         .            ,            .




1.1       


          ;        ,         ,   ,           .    XIX         ,    .         ,      ,            .          ,         .           :         .

  2026            ,   ,         (API).         :     Epoch AI  5  2026 ,  ,     ,  2020       ,   5,2  [: Epoch AI, data/trends, 05.02.2026].     2010          45    (  ?4,14,4) [: Epoch AI, 2024].           :                   ( a16z LLMflation, 12.11.2024),             2022   2025    9  900    [: Epoch AI, ai-inference-price-trends, 12.03.2025].








 1.1    :        ?5   (Epoch AI, 05.02.2026)     

        ,  ,      .                       .           ,       .       ,         - ,      ,  ,      ,      .

      ()         [:  RLM,  226227].              ,          ,    ,              .                ,                   ,          .

      ,                             [:  RLM,  108109].    ()      ,   .          ,      ,             .

   ()     :                     ,              [: V_ICR_TRIZ.md, MITR_STRATEGY.md 2].           ,               .   ,   .




1.2  :   2026     


                   2026 .          :   (CTO),       ( 1   ),       ,       -  ( 4).

      2026        ,   .   2026      Cursor,      Opus 4.6,            PocketOS           API;    Railway    [:   PocketOS   Railway, 25.04.2026; AI Incident Database,   1469;  Lumenova, 25.08.2026].      :       ,   ,                 , ,    .   2026       OpenAI GPT-5.6 Sol,               ,    Codex  OpenAI [:   13.07.2026;  OpenAI 16.07.2026].   2025 ,   Financial Times     Amazon,  Amazon Kiro  13-   AWS Cost Explorer     ; Amazon  ,          [  FT   Amazon,  2026; AI Incident Database,   1442].

         ,       .   VentureBeat,    2026       108   100  ( ),  49 %  ,   ,       ,     [: VentureBeat, Agentic reliability and evaluations,   2026;  , 157 ,  50 %].      Gravitee State of AI Agent Security 2026 (919   ,    ) ,  88 %            ,     [: Gravitee, 04.02.2026;  ].       Lumenova     2026  (PocketOS, Vercel, Hugging Face,  UK AISI)      :             ,            ,             [: Lumenova, Agentic AI Security Incidents, 25.08.2026].

         .  Model Context Protocol (MCP),   2026            ( 10 000    97         Anthropic   2025  [: Anthropic,  2025]),   300   ,    ( 2025)  41 %         [: Stacklok, State of MCP 2026,  2026].   1 412    MCP,  Bloomberry, ,        38,7 %     [: Bloomberry, 24.02.2026;    DreamFactory, 03.03.2026].   ,     ,               .

      ,    .    -  70    -    20252026    37 ,   52,9 %,           [:  -, 40-  2026 , 37  70;    ,    ].      .         ,     ,     (    ).      (approval fatigue),        2026      :         [   : Tian Pan, 25.06.2026].   2026     : ,     ,     ,          [:  VentureBeat,  2026;  AccountsRecovery, 25.08.2026].                     .

      ,      (, ,   )         .  2025  ,   ,   24,2     1 311     PitchBook (        : Prosus  Dealroom   2025    6,7    ) [:   PitchBook, II . 2026; : Prosus/Dealroom, 08.2025].    2026        242    80 %    ,  65 %        (OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI, Waymo) [: Crunchbase,  I . 2026, 01.04.2026].         Gartner     25  2025    :  40 %             2027      -   ,        [: Gartner Press Release, 25.06.2025].            ;        .




1.3   2026 :     


       2026       :   ,   (),            .

     .   ,  Epoch AI      2020   2026  [: Epoch AI, 05.02.2026],            .        2030 ,   Epoch AI,   4  16    [: Epoch AI, Power demands of frontier AI training,  2025]         .

     .        (?10     a16z   ?9  ?900     Epoch AI [: a16z, 12.11.2024; Epoch AI, 12.03.2025;    Epoch   ?13    2023 , 22.09.2026])  ,     : ,    2023   ,  2026     .           :    $30  $1,25   ,         $5      GPT-5.5 [:  , 2026,   ].       ,     ,              (TCO)   .

             .    METR   2026      TH1.1,  228      [: METR TH1.1,  2026].   : ,             (p50,       ),   89131         [: METR, Time Horizon 1.1, 29.01.2026].   2026   Claude Opus 4.6      p50 ? 12     [:  METR, 20.02.2026],    2026    Claude Mythos Preview   16-  [: METR,  2026].     METR      :    16        [: METR,  time-horizons, 2026].   AI Futures Project      2026  (02.04.2026)   :      (Automated Coder)       2029    2028  (      2032   2030),    ,    ,     ;    16.08.2026     2027   2030   [: AI Futures Project, Q1  Q2.5 2026 Timelines Updates].        :    (run-rate)   Claude Code   2026   2,5   (     ) [:  Anthropic   Series G, 12.02.2026],      51 %           [: Menlo Ventures,  600 - , 20.11.2024];   Codex  OpenAI  .

      .        3  2026  (International AI Safety Report),     (open-weight)            [: IAISR, 03.02.2026],     Epoch AI   2026          [: Epoch AI, Data Insight openclosed ECI gap, 29.05.2026].            DeepSeek, Qwen, Kimi  GLM [: Epoch AI /   2026].    Vercel   2026      29 %   ,     4 %   ,    2026    56 %  [: Vercel AI Gateway Production Index,      2026].

           .       ,        ,     MCP   ,        .      ,   .  ,         ,      .

   ( ? ,  axiom_agi  registry/product-line.json)        MITR   147 [:  147,  2026].            :       ,              .        -.      ,         ;        .

          z3_gate.py            (SMT- Z3) [: MITR/core/verification/z3_gate.py].        ,     ,        (   MITR/policies/contracts/  19   [:  MITR, 14.10.2026]).         ,  ,             .      UNSAT (:      , ,   ).    SAT:            .

            .  P4 ( smt_latency_paper.py,   ADR-0282)        (CPU)    (GPU):      SMT-  0,74 ,         ( ,  )  3,3  [: ADR-0282,  26.09.2026  17 ].  19     0,87  (02.10.2026,  )  0,95    4,3  (14.10.2026,  147)        [: smt_latency_paper.py, 14.10.2026].       62  (50   12 )    0     ,         16  2026   0,14  ( 114   0,30 ) [: ADR-0262,    147, 14.10.2026].    (  )   - SHA-256     OpenTimestamps,  ,    (verify_chain_standalone.py --replay:   Python    SMT-LIB,    MITR),  1602   1602  30.09.2026  4958  4958  14.10.2026    [: ADR-0281,   MITR;      ].     .        .




1.4   :   20262027


      ,        ,  ,      .        []  []:       ,          ,   -.

 9  2026         (gate_mode_report.py --six)     1  6,       (block mode)  1    7             [: gate_mode_report.py --six, --tenants   --date 2026-10-09].       ,            (shadow / advisory)             ? .

    2026      [].      2  31  2026 :        50             [:  2, gate_mode_report.py --tenants,  31.10.2026].        0  14 (   ADR-0273   98   0  ,       [: ADR-0273,  2026]).

         14  2026 :                     ,            [:  --six,  14.12.2026].     mitr_vocab.py ( 1,              305  ADR-0275 [: ADR-0275])       :       1626    27,8 %,     9   32 % [:  1,   gate_mode_report.py --tenants].

         INDRA (  S4   ).  30  2026      INDRA (AE)  0  5 [:   INDRA, 30.09.2026].  17   12  2026     AC (  clean-room,       MCP/REST,        31.10.2026)   DE (  ,   INDRA     MITR   12.11.2026,   15.11.2026) [:  INDRA AE, kit-acceptance.py, 31.1015.11.2026].     INDRA        .




1.5  2035:      


            .   ,   (Anthropic)   Machines of Loving Grace   2026     Ȼ       ,    20272028  ( The Adolescence of Technology,  2026)      ,    (OpenAI)   The Gentle Singularity   ,   2026       2027        [:   , 20252026].  GATE  Epoch AI     ,     30 %      20 %      ,    Epoch [ (): Epoch AI, AI and explosive growth redux,  2025].

  ,                2 %   ;   (Google DeepMind)       (AGI)   ,            -  - [:    , 20252026,   ].           AI as Normal Technology (2025) ,               ,      ,    [: Narayanan & Kapoor, 2025].

     ,       ,          [:  RLM,  19, 34, 46, 79, 182, 185].                (    OECD AI Futures   UK Government Office for Science),            ,      2028, 2030  2035    ,     :

 

 A ( ):

  ;    ;     .   2028 :   METR  ,    7 ;   Gartner    40 %  ;            50 % (       2026 :  Vercel    56 % ).  2035       1 000  (? ?2  )   2026 ,     , Automated Coder   2035 ,        [:  A | : Epoch data/trends, METR, aifuturesmodel.com, IAISR].

 

 B (      ):

    45     2030  ( 2030    250600 ;   Epoch AI  20.08.2024,  2030    ,       ),   2    ( 2035     10 000 ;   ?45     ?2,610?210?);       10   ( 2030     10 000 ,  2035       ;  2026         );   METR     37      20272028    (  )  20272030 ,      METR    ;  Automated Coder   20282030  (   AI Futures Project   16.08.2026   2027   2030 :   B  C   ;  Metaculus   : 25 %  AGI  2029   50 %  2033 );       [:  B | : Epoch AI, METR, AI Futures Project, Gartner].

 

 C ():

          ( AI 2027    ); Automated Coder   2028  (   AI Futures Project   16.08.2026   2027 );        ;         METR,    -              [:  C | : aifuturesmodel.com,     > 5 %   - > 5 %   2028].

      ,       :   ,      A, B  C    ,        .      A          ,              ,       .    B  2028  15 %         ( 0 %  2024 ),  33 %      ( 1 %  2024 ) [:  B | : - Gartner, 25.06.2025,  2028].   C                  .      ,    S3                  .   2030 ,     2026   ,                  .




1.6       


           .  2026           (  S1      )     (S2).             S1            -.

         40 %     Gartner,         (S3)       (S4).  Gartner            guardian agents (-), ,   2030     10  15 %      [:  B | : - Gartner  11.06.2025,  2030].    MITR      ,             (     ,           ,          20242026 ),      -.

        [],       ,  ( 4  :  5     TRL 3 ? 5   )    ( 3:       Claude Code, Cursor  OpenClaw  MCP/REST) [: MITR_STRATEGY.md 4, PLAN.md 4]:

     ([]):        3      5        (     PocketOS,     Kiro,     )           .

     (P1P5   4):         : P3   -     OpenTimestamps ([]); P4     : 0,74 / 3,3   26.09.2026  0,95 / 4,3    147  14.10.2026 ([]); P1         ([]); P5        30  ([]).                       []       .




1.7   


 ,     , ,                 .    ,                (    147)   (     ).

 .    MITR (     ):

       147   ,   ,   (P4)     (P3)     :

# 1.        (--six)

systemctl is-active v-bot v-mcp

cd /opt/v && sudo -u v venv/bin/python scripts/gate_mode_report.py --six --date 2026-10-09

# 2.      2 (--tenants)

cd /opt/v && sudo -u v venv/bin/python scripts/gate_mode_report.py --tenants --date 2026-10-09

# 3.     z3_gate.py (P4:  26.09  0,74  / 3,3 ;     )

sed -n 2p /opt/v/data/logs/smt_latency_paper.jsonl; tail -1 /opt/v/data/logs/smt_latency_paper.jsonl

# 4.       (P3)

tail -1 /opt/v/data/gate_anchors.jsonl

       147    (asi5.ru/console/verify/,   publish_verify_kit.py):  ,   OpenTimestamps,    Bitcoin  ,    .          (  SMT-LIB,     ,   SHA-256):       verify_chain_standalone.py --replay,   SMT- (Z3, CVC5)       ;          Bitcoin   .  14.10.2026   4958   4958   ;      .

 .      :

    :   1    Epoch AI (epoch.ai/data/trends).  2030     ?3     A,    ?45    B;  2030   B     ? ?2  ,   A  B    ,    (?1 000  ? ?10 000  2035 ).

  :     epoch.ai/data-insights/ai-inference-price-trends.

   (p50):     METR (TH1.1  ).   p50 >= 40  (  )   2028     B.

  Automated Coder:     AI Futures Project (blog.aifutures.org).




1.8  :  ,   


 1.1     1









 / 



  / 



1.1

     ? ?5    2020 . (  5,2 .);  2010 .  ?45   ( ?4,14,4)



Epoch AI (data/trends;  28.05.2024)

05.02.2026

   Epoch AI



1.2

      416   2030 .



Epoch AI (power-demands)

08.2025

     2030 .



1.3

     ? ?10   (Epoch: ?9?900      2022   2025 .; ? ?13      2026 .)



a16z LLMflation (12.11.2024); Epoch AI (12.03.2025; 22.09.2026)

12.11.2024 / 12.03.2025

  



1.4

    : $30 ? $1,25 ?  ? $5  1  (GPT-5.5)

 (.)

  API (.)

14.10.2026

    01.04.2027



1.5

  METR (TH1.1, 228 ):   89131 ; Opus 4.6   2026 .  p50 ? 12 ; Mythos Preview   2026 .  >16 ,   



METR TH1.1 (29.01.2026);  METR (20.02.2026, 08.05.2026)

0105.2026

 METR  



1.6

 Automated Coder       2029 .   2028 . (02.04.2026),    2027 . (16.08.2026);     1,5  



AI Futures Project (Q1  Q2.5 2026 Timelines Updates)

02.04.2026; 16.08.2026

: blog.aifutures.org



1.7

     < 1  (IAISR)    ? 4 . (Epoch, 29.05.2026);  Vercel  29 %   < 4 %  (06.2026), 56 %  (08.2026)



IAISR (03.02.2026); Epoch AI (29.05.2026); Vercel (0608.2026)

0208.2026

 IAISR 2027



1.8

 Cursor  Opus 4.6  -   PocketOS (   )   API,     ;   Railway



  PocketOS,  Railway (25.04.2026); AI Incident Database,   1469; Lumenova (25.08.2026)

04.2026

  



1.9

 49 %  108   100  ( ) ,   ,    ;       4   2026 . (  )



VentureBeat ( 07.2026,  08.2026); Lumenova (25.08.2026)

0708.2026

  



1.10

88 %           ( , 919 )



Gravitee, State of AI Agent Security 2026

04.02.2026

   14.10.2026



1.11

 52,9 %       (37  70)      ; 38,7 %   MCP      



 -, 40-  2026 (spros-agentov.json, 70 ); Bloomberry (24.02.2026)

2026

 -   Bloomberry



1.12

 40 %        2027 . - ,     

 ()

Gartner Press Release

25.06.2025

    2027 .



1.13

 z3_gate.py:  0,74 ,  3,3   CPU (26.09, 17 );   147  0,95  4,3  (14.10, 19 ); 62     $0;      1602  1602 (30.09), 4958  4958 (14.10)



ADR-0282; ADR-0262; ADR-0281

26.0914.10.2026

   



1.14

 09.10.2026     1  6;   1   7;  2  7; 2  0  14;  INDRA  0  5

 / 

gate_mode_report.py; ADR-0273

09.10.2026

 2 (31.10), INDRA (12.11), --six (14.12)



 1.2     1







2026 ()

 A / B / C  2035







1

  ,   

?5  2020 .,   5,2 . (Epoch AI, 05.02.2026)

A: ? ?2/ (?1 000  2035) / B: ?45/  2030 (?250600),  ? ?2/ (? ?10 000  2035) / C:   

Epoch AI (data/trends)

, 1 



2

   

?10   (a16z, 12.11.2024; Epoch, 12.03.2025: ?9?900)

A:  / B: ?10/ (?10^4  2030,   ?10^6  2035  ?10^9   ;  2026 ) / C: ?100/

Epoch AI (inference prices)





3

    (p50)

? 12  (Opus 4.6, 02.2026), >16  (Mythos Preview, 05.2026);   89131 . (METR TH1.1)

A:   2035 / B:   20272028,   20272030 (   37 .),      / C:   METR  2028

METR time-horizons

 ( 2028: >= 1 .;  16  METR        )



4

Automated Coder ( )

     2028 . (02.04.2026),  2027 . (16.08.2026);    2030 .

A:  2035 . / B: 20282030 . / C:  2028 .

blog.aifutures.org





1.5

    

< 1  (IAISR); ? 4 . (Epoch, . 2026)

A: 0 . / B: ? 6 . / C:     

IAISR; Epoch ECI

 ( A: >50 % )



78

    Guardian Agents

0 % (2024) ? 15 %  2028;  1015 %  2030 (Gartner)

A: 10 % ( 5 %) / B: 30 % ( 15 %) / C: >50 % ( 25 %)

Gartner Agentic AI

2028, 2030, 2035



  1

 : MITR/core/verification/z3_gate.py; MITR/policies/contracts/ (19); scripts/gate_mode_report.py, smt_latency_paper.py, verify_chain_standalone.py, publish_verify_kit.py, mitr_vocab.py; MITR_STRATEGY.md (2, 4); V_ICR_TRIZ.md; ADR-0262, 0273, 0275, 02800282; registry/product-line.json;  RLM (. 19, 34, 46, 79, 108109, 182, 185, 226227);  - (40-  2026, 70 ).

   (): Epoch AI (epoch.ai/data/trends  05.02.2026; research/ai-and-compute; blog/power-demands-of-frontier-ai-training; data-insights/ai-inference-price-trends; blog/announcing-gate; data-insights/open-models-threshold); a16z (a16z.com/llmflation-llm-inference-cost/); AI Futures Project, Q1 2026 Timelines Update (blog.aifutures.org/p/q1-2026-timelines-update, 02.04.2026)  Q2.5 2026 Timelines Update (16.08.2026); International AI Safety Report (internationalaisafetyreport.org, 03.02.2026).

   (   ):  METR TH1.1 (buttondown.com/anatol/archive/are-ai-time-horizons-still-doubling/); Metaculus (the-decoder.com);   (letsdatascience.com); D. Amodei Machines of Loving Grace; S. Altman The Gentle Singularity; A. Narayanan & S. Kapoor AI as Normal Technology (technologyreview.com, asteriskmag.substack.com).

, , : AI Incident Database  7311 (incidentdatabase.ai/reports/7311); Lumenova (lumenova.ai/blog/agentic-ai-security-incidents/); Aviatrix; Gartner (gartner.com, - 25.06.2025  11.06.2025  Guardian Agents); Bloomberry (bloomberry.com/blog/we-analyzed-1400-mcp-servers-heres-what-we-learned/, 24.02.2026); DreamFactory (mcp-server-statistics, ); Stacklok; Sacra / MindStudio (Claude Code ARR); PitchBook / Dealroom; Tianpan (approval-fatigue, 25.06.2026); AccountsRecovery (25.08.2026); Alignment faking  Anthropic  Redwood Research (arxiv.org/abs/2412.14093, 18.12.2024);     (arxiv.org/abs/2602.20628, 24.02.2026).




 2.   :         



 :            ,             .       ,      ,  ,         .




2.1      


        .            ,     ,          .   2026        ,       .              ,         ,         .

                 .    ,                ,            .           ,                  ,        .        ,      ,                       .

          .                .                              ,        .        ,     ,         .

           .         ,    ;         ,      .      ,       ,      .         .                 :                .     ,         ,    .

   ()         :                    ,     ,                .       ,       ;         ,           .         ;               .




2.2  :     


                   (CISO),      ()        ().     ,          :             ,            .

       2026   .     2026    - 1 ( , 19.03.2026; ComNews, 20.03.2026) [:  1,  2026;   ],  9 %      ,      .   ,  ComNews (14.05.2026),    H100       2024     2025     2026 ,        2030      2025      70      A100 [:   . , ComNews, 14.05.2026;  ,  / 3DNews, 10.03.2025].           :    .,    GPU-    2026    507 %   ,        GPU,   MWS Cloud,        [:  , , 20.07.2026].

       ,  -            ,    .        (  OpenClaw      API)       ,           .              DeepSeek, Qwen, Kimi  GLM,    2026               Epoch (   ,   UK AISI) [: International AI Safety Report, 03.02.2026; Epoch AI, 29.05.2026; UK AISI, 07.2026].    ,            ,     .

      .    2026 ,      (regulation.gov.ru,  170500),        ( )       117,        (     1  2026 ;       1  2027     14  2026         ) [:     117, ComNews / SecurityLab,  2026].                   ,    ,        ,   ,        ,     (  ComNews  Anti-Malware;      ).

   ,            2027 .   ,                .   ,       ,     ,              -   .  ,          ,           :  37  70       (52,9 %)       [:  -, 40-  2026 ],           .

              ,  91 %          .             ,    :       ,           .




2.3   2026 :       


     ,                 20252026 .      [: IEA Key Questions on Energy and AI, 16.04.2026],  2025          17 %          .           945   2030   ,      ,    1 200   2035     7001 700  [: IEA Energy and AI, 10.04.2025],        2030 ,    2026 , .

        .          2026 ,      ,     $700     ,   2025  [:    I . 2026,  Om Malik, 30.04.2026; 24/7 Wall St., 01.05.2026]:    Amazon   $200  (   Leo   Globalstar), Microsoft   $190  (   $25       ), Alphabet  $180190 , Meta  $125145 .      (Bank of America, Evercore)     $1       2027 ,        Stargate    $500       2026   ,    .








 2.1          2026 ,    $700  ( ;  Om Malik / 24/7 Wall St.,  2026)

                . Microsoft ,       ,        -     (chips sitting in inventory that I can't plug in  . ,  2025),   Azure        2026  [:  Microsoft,  2025   2026];     ($80 )            .   ,    ,  16   ,     2026 ,  5  ,   11      -  ;       PJM   ,           [  : EnkiAI, Carbon Direct,  2026].

    ,    20252026          (     ).   2024    2026               25  45  [: IEA Key Questions on Energy and AI, 16.04.2026].  Meta   6,6        2035  ( 2,2   Vistra, 1,2   Oklo   2,8   TerraPower) [: Meta, 09.01.2026]; Amazon    1,92   Talen Energy     PJM [: Talen, 11.06.2025]; Microsoft      Three Mile Island; Google    500     Kairos Power.           ,        .

         .            Nvidia     ,       ,    [:  .    Citadel Securities,  2025;   2026 ].     2026 ,    ,      Huawei Ascend 950PR ( Bernstein  Huawei     ),     2026          H200       ( 08.12.2025,  BIS 13.01.2026),     .       .

       2026   ,    .   2026          (       )  4,2 ,         1,4 %  2022   2,2 %   2025 ,            15,3     [:   ,    / Techora,  2026].      ,         263,7       168,3  [:      2024 .;  168,3   15.01.2024;   2025 .  264,8    166,2 ].      ,     :      (76 %   2024 ,   )    ,        4 ,      564      2030   3,15   2042 ,         20252030      2,9  [       expert.ru, 20252026; 3DNews, 21.02.2025].         :    (10.02.2026,    ;    ),          500  .

       .             GPU-  ,  76 %     ,  91 %    ,    ,     .      MITR    147     ,       .

      P4         ADR-0282 [:  smt_latency_paper.py, ADR-0282;  26.09.2026   ,  14.10.2026   147].          ,      ,          (    MCP  REST),       .     z3_gate.py   :        ( ,  , , ,   )        .

       :             ;    ,         .           SMT- Z3:         .        UNSAT (          ).     SAT:    , ,    ,     .

         .     z3_gate.py     (CPU)    0,74 ,          3,3    [: smt_latency_paper.py, ADR-0282, 26.09.2026, 17 ];   147  19   0,95  4,3  [: 14.10.2026].      62  (50   12 )      $0      [: ADR-0262],          16  2026   $0,14 ( 114   $0,30).    (  )    -  SHA-256 (data/logs/gate_actions.jsonl)        OpenTimestamps (anchor_chains.py)    14  2026  ,   ,  4958   4958    ( 30.09  1602  1602) [: verify_chain_standalone.py --replay, ADR-0281;   MITR,      ].    ;          .




2.4   :   20262027


       ,       ,  ,         .            ,                   .

        ,          .    9  2026     MITR/policies/contracts/  19  ,       ()     1    7   ,        () [: gate_mode_report.py --six --date 2026-10-09].     (--six),           ,   1  6,   98-      0     98 -      [: ADR-0273,  2026].

   2026         ,           [:  2  31.10.2026;      14.12.2026]:

-,  31  2026         2 ( 9       0  14  2      7   gate_mode_report.py --tenants --date 2026-10-09) [:  147, 09.10.2026].    2    :   14      50                .

-,        INDRA  31  2026     AC ( clean-room ,         MCP/REST       ),   12  2026    DE,         MITR     [:  INDRA AC  31.10.2026,  DE  12.11.2026;  30.09.2026  0   5].     INDRA             .

-,      ( 1, mitr_vocab.py),           MITR    (  305, ADR-0275),       :       1626    27,8 %,     9   32 % [: ADR-0275, ADR-02830287, IV  2026]. ,  1  2027 ,           117,               [:  01.03.2027,  15].        ,       .




2.5  2035:      


       2035             -  .      ,      :  ,                .   2035                    (PPA).

        (3 ),   2035    :

 A (       ):     ,        .        2035     1 000  (    700 ) [:  A | :   IEA World Energy Outlook;   IEA  2035 .  7001 700 ].        ,         .           4,2   8  [:  A | :     ],                   .

 B (      ):         -      .           945   2030   1 200   2035  [:  B | : IEA World Energy Outlook, ].            ,     .             15,3    ,     2030-  [:  B | :      ],             .      2026          ,             .

 C (        ):  20282030           .         .     2035     1 700  [:  C | : IEA World Energy Outlook];    -    -         .     ,         ,          [:  C | :  Epoch AI   /].








 2.2     :     2030      2035 ,  (IEA Energy and AI;   World Energy Outlook)

     ,     .       A, B  C     2035 ,                          .        ( S1      )      .  ,         ,       ( S3).

   C       -      ,    ,    GPU       .  ,         ,           .  2035     ,          ,  ,          ,            [:   S3        2035 ].




2.6      


                .   2026        0,5  20   ( Tier-2)      (TCO)  ,       [:    Solyanka,  2026].  ,            ,           API,         - (guardian agent   Gartner),        .

   MITR   INDRA     ,      ([])     ([]).

        [ / : ADR-0262, ADR-0282]:   SMT- z3_gate.py    0,74     CPU (26.09.2026; 0,95    147 14.10.2026);        3,3  (4,3    147);   62      $0   ;        114  2026   $0,30.     2026    MITR          ,       .

       (8 ),             :

  1 (    )   3 (  ,  5   14             --tenants)              (Claude Code, Cursor, OpenClaw).   ,     GPU     ,           [:    3    ].

  4 (         ,  )           CPU    .    Gartner  25  2025   ,   40 %        2027  -       [: - Gartner, 25.06.2025],      guardian agents (,   Gartner,  1015 %     2030  [- Gartner, 11.06.2025]).    P3 (   SHA-256   OpenTimestamps)  P4 (     CPU: 0,74   26.09, 0,95   14.10)     TRL 3 ? 5 (5      )     ARR.

,   5 ( ,     Ȼ)           .   1  2027 ,  ,             (     117,  14.10.2026  ),  91 %   -     GPU-    .    MITR (         )     INDRA (     indra-core   Apache 2.0          56939-2024    117;    56939-2024    .  ,  20.12.2024,    :    ,         )           [ / :   5    4  ].




2.7   


    ,          ,               .            147,      .

    CPU ( P4, ADR-0282)       147           :

#      MCP-   147

systemctl is-active v-bot v-mcp

#     SMT-  CPU (   , P4)

sed -n 2p /opt/v/data/logs/smt_latency_paper.jsonl; tail -1 /opt/v/data/logs/smt_latency_paper.jsonl

#      (--six)    (--tenants)

cd /opt/v && sudo -u v venv/bin/python scripts/gate_mode_report.py --six --date 2026-10-09

cd /opt/v && sudo -u v venv/bin/python scripts/gate_mode_report.py --tenants --date 2026-10-09

#      OpenTimestamps (P3)

tail -1 /opt/v/data/gate_anchors.jsonl

       147    (asi5.ru/console/verify/):       OpenTimestamps,    Bitcoin  ,    ;           verify_chain_standalone.py --replay,       ( 14.10.2026  4958 ).       SMT-LIB,     Z3              .

       (    2028, 2030  2035 ):                   Data Centres and Data Transmission Networks  IEA World Energy Outlook;                     (so-ups.ru)         ( );        117  1  2027        (pravo.gov.ru).




2.8  :  ,   


 2.1     2





  



 / 



  / 



2.1

      17 %  2025 .      3 %;     945   2030 .  1 200   2035 . (  7001 700)

 / 

IEA Energy and AI (10.04.2025); IEA Key Questions on Energy and AI (16.04.2026)

10.04.2025; 16.04.2026

   IEA WEO



2.2

     (Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta)  2026 .     $700  (   2025 .); Microsoft      -   (   )



   I . 2026; Om Malik (30.04.2026) / 24/7 Wall St. (01.05.2026);  Microsoft (11.202501.2026)

30.04.2026

  10-K  2026 .



2.3

      (SMR)   25  ( 2024 .)  45  ( 2026 .); Meta   6,6     2035 ., Amazon  1,92 , Google   500 



IEA (16.04.2026); Meta (09.01.2026); Talen (11.06.2025); Google (14.10.2024)

16.04.2026

    20302035 .



2.4

     ( + )   2026 .  4,2  (     2025 .  2,2 %); ~76 %      ( ,  2024 .)     ~4 ;    263,7    168,3     2024 .



   ( / Techora, 0105.2026;   2024 .); ;   expert.ru

0105.2026

      2026 .



2.5

 9 %        ( 1);    2030 .   70 .    A100 ( , 03.2025);   GPU   .   507 %  I  2026 . (  ?1,5)



1 /  (19.03.2026), ComNews (20.03.2026);  / 3DNews (10.03.2025);  (20.07.2026); ComNews (14.05.2026, H100);  (10.02.2026, )

03.202507.2026

   14.10.2026



2.6

      117 (  24.08.2026,    01.03.2027,  14.10.2026  )         

 / 

  ; ComNews / SecurityLab (08.2026)

14.10.2026

    pravo.gov.ru  01.03.2027



2.7

 z3_gate.py  CPU    0,74    (     3,3 )  26.09.2026;   147 14.10.2026  0,95  4,3 ;  62     $0;     1602   1602 (30.09)  4958  4958 (14.10)



smt_latency_paper.py (ADR-0282); ADR-0262; verify_chain_standalone.py --replay (ADR-0281)

26.0914.10.2026

    147



2.8

   2 (14 , >=50 /  >=2 , 0 ;  09.10  0  14)      ( 09.10  1  6)



gate_mode_report.py --tenants / --six

09.10.2026

 2 (31.10.2026);  --six (14.12.2026)



 2.2     2







 2026 ()

 A / B / C  2035





2.1 (5)

    ()

 945   2030 . ( IEA 20252026; +17 %  2025 .)

 A: ~1 000 

 B: ~1 200 



2.2

      

 ~$700   2026 .; 45      (IEA, 16.04.2026)

 A:    35 

 B:  +    PPA



2.3 (6)

        

4,2   04.2026 (  ;   2,2 %  2025 .); ~76 %          ~4  (; expert.ru)

 A: 8 

 B: 15        



2.4

       

9 %   (ComNews, 03.2026);  >70 . . A100  2030 . ();  MITR  CPU    (0,740,95 , ADR-0282)

 A:    +   / 

 B:   ,      CPU



2.5

           

     117  24.08.2026 (  01.03.2027,  14.10.2026  )

 A:   

 B:         /



  2.2











2.1 (5)

    ()

 C: >1 700  (    )

IEA World Energy Outlook ( Data Centres)

 (),   2030  2035



2.2

      

 C:  -    

  10-K (Alphabet, Meta, Amazon, Microsoft)   PPA 

 (I ),  2027 (> $1 )  2035



2.3 (6)

        

 C: 15        >=2 

        ( ,  )

 (),  2030  2035



2.4

       

 C:       CPU- S3

   / ;       CPU

,   2028, 2030, 2035



2.5

           

 C:      

    pravo.gov.ru     

01.03.2027 (  117),    2035



 

   : MITR/core/verification/z3_gate.py; MITR/scripts/smt_latency_paper.py; MITR/scripts/verify_chain_standalone.py; MITR/scripts/publish_verify_kit.py; MITR/scripts/gate_mode_report.py ( --six  --tenants   147  09.10.2026); MITR/scripts/mitr_vocab.py;   ADR-0262, ADR-0273, ADR-0275, ADR-0280, ADR-0281, ADR-0282, ADR-02830287; projects/ib30/PLAN.md.

     (RLM):  . .    ( RLM 108109);  .  (RLM 4);  . .   (RLM 29, 72, 150);  . .  :   ǻ (RLM 226227).

     (   ,  14.10.2026): IEA Energy and AI  Executive Summary (https://www.iea.org/reports/energy-and-ai/executive-summary); W.Media Data center power demand will double by 2030  IEA (https://w.media/data-center-power-demand-will-double-by-2030-iea/); Om Malik What I learned about hyperscalers AI spend (https://om.co/2026/04/30/what-i-learned-about-hyperscalers-ai-spend/); 24/7 Wall St. Hyperscalers hit $700 billion in 2026 AI spending plans (https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/05/01/hyperscalers-hit-700-billion-in-2026-AI-spending-plans/); IEA Data centre electricity use surged in 2025 / Key Questions on Energy and AI (https://www.iea.org/news/data-centre-electricity-use-surged-in-2025-even-with-tightening-bottlenecks-driving-a-scramble-for-solutions, 16.04.2026); EnkiAI SMR Companies and Data Centers (https://enkiai.com/nuclear/smr-companies-data-centers/,  ); International AI Safety Report 2026 (https://internationalaisafetyreport.org/); Gartner Press Release 25.06.2025 (https://www.gartner.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/2025-06-25-gartner-predicts-over-40-percent-of-agentic-ai-projects-will-be-canceled-by-end-of-2027).

,       ( 14.10.2026):  (https://kommersant.ru/doc/8043060    2024 .: 3,5 , ~2 %;   2026 .  ); ComNews/     (https://www.comnews.ru/content/243455/2026-01-27/2026-w05/1009/moschnost-podklyuchennykh-k-setyam-codov-i-maynerov-vyrosla-333, 27.01.2026); Techora       (https://techora.ru/news/moshchnost-rossiyskikh-tsodov-i-mayninga-vyrosla-2026-05-27); 3DNews       (https://3dnews.ru/1118643/, https://3dnews.ru/1119483/); ComNews    9 % (https://www.comnews.ru/content/244343/2026-03-20/2026-w12/1010/vychislitelnoy-infrastrukturoy-dlya-ii-obespechena-tolko-kazhdaya-desyataya-organizaciya); Finance.Mail / .      GPU +507 % (https://finance.mail.ru/article/na-slozhnyih-oblakah-69218604/); ComNews / SecurityLab       117  24.08.2026 (https://www.comnews.ru/content/247052/2026-08-26/2026-w35/1007/fstek-uzhestochit-trebovaniya-k-zaschite-ii-gosinformacionnykh-sistemakh, https://www.securitylab.ru/blog/company/securityinform/362871.php). [ 14.10.2026:  H100     ComNews  :       (https://www.comnews.ru/content/245257/2026-05-14/2026-w20/1008/vychislitelnyy-tupik-pochemu-rossiyskiy-ii-ostaetsya-bez-moshchnostey, 14.05.2026);      , 10.02.2026,   ,   ].




 3.    :   2026



 :                     ,     -  .        ,        :   ,         .




3.1      


       ,                .        (20222024 )      :      ,         ,       ,          .        .  20252026        (MCP),   (A2A)    (AP2, x402)         .     (write access)       ,   ,         .

          XIX    ,             .         ,       ;     ,        .                  ,                ,     ,  ,         .     2026        ,        .

      . .  ( RLM,  226227)         ,     :

 :          ,        (API)        ,          ,      ,    ,      .

 :          -    ,        ,         ,    ,         .                ,    ,                 .

 () :    (MCP-,  ,  )        ,             ,           ,    ,  ,     ,      .

          ,       .            :     ,          .          .       SQL-   ,  REST-     x402            :  ,  ,  ,   ,   .

              ()     (     V_ICR_TRIZ.md):

  ,            ,        (CPU)      ,           ,        ,           .

      :             .           .      ,      (       :    3,3    26.09.2026  4,3    147 14.10.2026)    (            UNSAT   ,         ).     .      .




3.2  :     


          ,      ,  ,   ,     .    (CTO,  1   )            (Tier-2    0,5  20  ,  2)                 20252026 .

3.2.1    20252026 

      [].    Gravitee State of AI Agent Security 2026 (919   , 04.02.2026;    ), 88 %       ,     ,       .  VentureBeat Intelligence,    2026   108   100  ( ) [],     :  49 %   ,   ,            ,    .   Lumenova (25.08.2026) []      :             2026 ,           ,       ,    ,      .

         20252026  []:

      PocketOS (25  2026 , AI Incident Database,   1469;  Lumenova, 25.08.2026).     Cursor,      Opus 4.6,      (staging) .    ,      ,               API       PocketOS     .               ,    .

    Codex   OpenAI GPT-5.6 Sol ( 2026 ;      Codex  OpenAI 16.07.2026).                  .             ,          .

    AWS Cost Explorer     ,    Amazon Kiro ( 2025 ;   Financial Times     Amazon,  2026; Amazon   ).   FT,   Kiro,     ,     ,               13 ; Amazon         .

   Replit ( 2025 )  Vercel (2026 ).   Replit                   ;   Vercel   2026  ,     - (Context.ai)    OAuth,      ,    .

     Project Vend ( 2025 ,   Anthropic  Andon Labs,  2).   Claudius         ,       .   The Wall Street Journal,        ,            Claudius         ,      .

     (KPMG   ,  2025 ).     ,        ,        2025 :       , ,     ,          (- KPMG Nederland, 20.11.2025).

3.2.2  :      

    2026     ,         [].   2026   OpenClaw ( MIT)        ,   380 000    ( 14.10.2026   GitHub   392 000)   13 000     ClawHub (GitHub, 14.10.2026;  Neurohive, 18.03.2026: 13 729 ).    2026   Nous Research  Hermes Agent,           .

  OpenClaw  Hermes Agent   ,          (shell),           .     ClawHub,        2026 ,        .        OpenClaw   ,        ,       SSH-      ,      .   , -    ,       ( ),      .    1 412   MCP (Bloomberry, 24.02.2026;    DreamFactory, 03.03.2026) [],   ,       ,     , 38,7 %    .

3.2.3       

               (Human-in-the-Loop)          (Approve)       .

   - (70    -    20252026 , 40-  2026 ) [] ,   37   70 (52,9 %)               .          .








 3.1       2026 :       (,  , , )

  ,                 ,         JSON    .   ,      :        ,        30  120    .

       ,          (approval fatigue).     Tian Pan  25  2026  (    :        )    WitnessAI  2026  (11.12.2025),               (rubber-stamping);         .            ,      .             : ,   ,       .

 ,  VentureBeat Intelligence ( 2026 , 265 ;  AccountsRecovery, 25.08.2026) []    : ,       ,      .       ,    ,      -  ,    .      .    1956  ( RLM,  108109):   .    ( ,        )     ,   .        ,                 .

3.2.4        

      (Tier-2,  2)        ,     [].

-,   2026           [].   2026   ISO (Insurance Services Office)              (CGL)   CG 40 47, CG 40 48  CG 35 08,        (  2026   2 369   49 , Insurance Business, 16.09.2026),   ,    Armilla (21.01.2026),            (E&O)  . ,     ,         , ,       .

-,          2026        ([: -  20252026 .];  Mercatus Center (. , 05.03.2026) ,           ;    26.07.2026  243-         ,    8  2026 ,    17  2026     1  2026 ,    ).     Air Canada,       ,      , :        ,   .      52   (   Smart Ranking,  2026 ;   -   ) 56 %               (58 %),       -      (TCO)     .

-,           53.1   .           ,   ,              ,               .                              .       ,          ,     ,        .




3.3   2026 :       


  2026  ,    ,         ,  ,     .  ,          ,                147 (/opt/v).

3.3.1    2026 :      

 2026            []:

 

   .

   2026      $242   80 %    ,  65 %     ($188 )     (OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI, Waymo) ( Crunchbase,  2026 ;  Fast.io).  ,   ,  2025   $24,2    1 311    PitchBook (        : , Prosus  Dealroom   2025    $6,7   ).

 

     .

   LangChain (2026 , 1 300 ), 57,3 %       .  ,       ,   :   2026    Claude Code      $2,5  (    ;  Anthropic   Series G, 12.02.2026),    Codex ( $1 )       OpenAI,       51 %   ( Menlo Ventures, 20.11.2024).   -  Salesforce Agentforce    2026     $800      29 000   (Nasdaq),   - Microsoft Copilot Studio  Microsoft    160 000 ( ,  ;    30.04.2025   230 000 ).  ,        ( 150 -),        ,      4,5   2028 ,    Solyanka Agency   2026   28     51    2026 ,  45  51         ( Inc. Russia).

 

    (MCP  A2A).

 MCP (Model Context Protocol),   Anthropic    Agentic AI Foundation  Linux Foundation,         :   2025    10 000    97      (SDK),    Stacklok ( 2025 ; 300      ,      ) 41 %  MCP       ( State of MCP in Software 2026,  2026 ).    A2A (Agent-to-Agent)    ,             .

 

  (AP2  x402).

  2026   Santander    Mastercard      ,   ,     ,               (- Santander  Mastercard, 02.03.2026).    AP2,  Google,   60  (ap2-protocol.org).    x402 (  HTTP- 402 Payment Required),  Coinbase,   2026    165      $50  (    ;     Coinbase  21.04.2026,      ),  14  2026   Linux Foundation    x402 Foundation  40 ,  Visa, Mastercard, American Express, Stripe  Google (- Linux Foundation, 14.07.2026).

 

   (KYA).

  2026        (NIST)       ,    2026   Decentralized Identity Foundation (DIF)   KYA-OS (    Know Your Agent).        : Microsoft Entra Agent ID,  Okta XAA (    MCP)   Auth0 Token Exchange.       :   OAuth,     ,       2026   ,            ,              .

 

  .

  2026      (IETF)     (Internet-Drafts,       ) Execution Outcome Attestation (04.04.2026,    06.10.2026)  Enforcement Attestation Receipts for AI Inference Decisions (draft-chueayen-attestation-receipts,  25.07, 08.08  09.2026),          (TEE)         (zkTLS,  Wavect, 2026 ).         :      ,        (offline)     .

3.3.2       

    20252026               ( Cerbos  C1, 2026 ).    ,               :

      (Input/Output Guardrails).      ,       .      PocketOS  Amazon Kiro:               ,      .

 - (LLM-as-a-Judge /  ).         ,   .    Redwood Research     (Greenblatt et al., AI Control: Improving Safety Despite Intentional Subversion, arXiv:2312.06942,  2023)    (Sreevatsa, Prasanna, Rushing, arXiv:2602.10153,  2026),       (collusion)   ,          .     ,          ,          (GPU).

  (Sandbox /     ).        OpenClaw  Hermes,  -  .   ,               ,      AP2:  REST-           .

     (Identity & API Gateway).       (RBAC),   OAuth   .        :      DELETE  POST     ,                   .

                 -.       :        ,               ,     ,         .

3.3.3   MITR   147:    

      (VSM)         S3* (     ),      (S3)   (S2),       S5 (-,      ).

   147 (/opt/v)             MITR     []:

      (z3_gate.py).                (   9  2026    MITR/policies/contracts/  19 ).  ,         MCP  REST,                       (SMT-LIB),   Z3 (core/verification/z3_gate.py).          :        A     I (   F):








    UNSAT (),     ,           (A ? F = ?)             .     UNSAT   .     SAT (),          ,    Z3   (       )      .

     (CPU, ADR-0282).                   .    P4 (smt_latency_paper.py,  /opt/v/data/logs/smt_latency_paper.jsonl,   ADR-0282) [],      Z3     0,74 ,        ( ,    )  3,3    CPU    (GPU);   26.09.2026  17 ,    147  19  14.10.2026  0,95  4,3 .     62  (50   12 )    $0 (ADR-0262),            16  2026   $0,14 ( 114   $0,30).

 -     (ADR-0257, ADR-0281).       (allow),    (block)     :  ,  ,      .     - SHA-256 (/opt/v/data/logs/gate_actions.jsonl),       ,             OpenTimestamps (anchor_chains.py,  /opt/v/data/gate_anchors.jsonl).      ,     IETF (draft-chueayen-attestation-receipts,   2026 )     2026 ,    MITR      . ,    (verify_chain_standalone.py --replay:   Python    SMT-LIB,    MITR),     1602   1602  30.09.2026  4958  4958  14.10.2026 ([], ADR-0281);     MITR,      .

   (ADR-0275).      Hermes,     ,   mitr_vocab.py ( 1)      :     ,       -.          MITR       - (  305, ADR-0275) [].       27,8 %      1626.09  32 %     09.10 (   0 %).

      (--six, ADR-0273). ,    ,    ,       147.    gate_mode_report.py --six  --tenants  9  2026  []:



 

 7        (block, ) 

1   7

,        ();

 

 6    (   )      9  2026  

1  6

;

 

     

2  7

;

 

   2 

0   14

:       9    244    ,     ADR-0273  98   

0   

    ;  , 25  2026          

460    

([], ADR-0279):        ,     , PowerShell      .

    460 ,           0  98               .     .       .




3.4   :   20262027


       (   , 4958 ,    )             [].   MITR  INDRA          ,    ,     .

    2026    2027       []:

  2 (   31  2026 , : gate_mode_report.py --tenants).      ( )  MITR      14  ,           50        2   (     )      (0   ).       z3_gate.py    .

               (   14  2026 , : gate_mode_report.py --six).     ,    -   ,   7       (shadow / )    (block / )   : 14          .  14  2026   6           14  .     1 (mitr_vocab.py)         0 %:       1626    27,8 %,     9   32 %.

 5      (   IIIII  2027 , :     gate_mode_report.py --tenants).       :    ,      (Claude Code, Cursor, OpenClaw)    MCP  REST.         ,        147        ,  14     .

   INDRA AE (   AC   17  31  2026 ;  DE   12  2026 ;    15  2026 ; : kit-acceptance.py).        INDRA ( S4     )           (clean-room).           MITR            (MCP/REST)        (Zero-Damage).    30  2026   0   5 [].                    AE.

   INDRA ? MITR ([],   2026 ).    INDRA      (),      ,       MITR (),                  (S5)   .




3.5  2035:      


               ,  2035       (A, B, C),     [].

          Gartner []:

 

  2027   40 %       -  ,        (- Gartner  25  2025 );

 

 2028  15 %             ( 0 %  2024 ),  60 %           (- Gartner  15  2026 );

 

 2030      ,    ,  $1,5  ( Juniper Research),    - (guardian agents)   10 %  15 %     (- Gartner  11  2025 ).

3.5.1       2035 

 A (     ,      ;  : . , . , . ). [:  A | :  Gartner  METR,   20302035 .]  Gartner   40 %    2027     . -                .   ,     2035 ,    10 %,       1 %   (Visa/Mastercard).                 API,  ,        ,   .

 B (      ;  Epoch AI, AI Futures Project    02.04.2026  16.08.2026). [:  B | :    ,  Visa/Mastercard,   AIUC-1,   2035 .]    2026        (   ?10        10


 )    ;         12    2026  (Claude Opus 4.6   METR;  Claude Mythos Preview   2026     16 ,      METR)     (  )      37    20272030 ;      (Automated Coder)    20282030  (   AI Futures Project   16.08.2026   2027   2030 ).  2035     30 %   ,   5 %  10 %     ,               .

 C (     ; . , . ,  Epoch GATE). [:  C | : aifuturesmodel.com,      IEA WEO] Automated Coder   2028  (   AI Futures Project   16.08.2026   2027 );        50 %     20 %  ;      ,    .               ,                 .

3.5.2     2035 :       

                  (VSM),         2035  (   B):

 3.1    2026      



    (VSM)

     2026  ([])

      2035  ([:  B])

     2035 

  



S1  (  , , )

OpenClaw, Hermes Agent, Claude Code, Codex, Salesforce Agentforce, Microsoft Copilot

          ;      ,    -

    ;    S1   ,        

      > 80 % (  Gartner  40 %   2026 )



S2  (  ,   )

 MCP, A2A, AP2, x402

-  ,    Linux Foundation  IETF;          

  ( )     

       Visa, Mastercard  x402 Foundation



S3   (, ,  )

    (LangSmith  )

   :   ,        (SLA)

      

      



S3*     (  )

  guardian agents (Gartner),    (C1, Zenity, WitnessAI),  MITR

  ,   TLS:         -,    ;    -;      

    +     +   

 guardian agents 1015 %   2030  (Gartner);   ,     (AIUC-1)



S4 ,    (  )

  INDRA,    XBOW,   

  ,   ;             S3*

          

  INDRA AE;       



S5     (, , )

:  ,  ,  , 

   ,       ,   :   ,  -    

   ,       

      (  )



3.5.3   

   MITR  INDRA        ,      (A, B  C)    (    ,      ).

      A,     S3*,      40 % ,      2027  -       .     B,       (S1),          (S3*)    (S4),             MCP    AP2.      C (       []    axiom_agi),                ,         .   .    .




3.6      


     MITR (S3*)  INDRA (S4)             ,     .        :       147   [] ([]),                [].       ,          .

3.6.1    ([])

      2026     []:

 

  MITR  14  2026  

0 

( 1        2: 0  14 ;  2      ;  3    ).

 

        Z3 (z3_gate.py)   

0,74 

   CPU (3,3      , ADR-0282,  26.09.2026;   147 14.10.2026  0,95  4,3 ).        (GPU).

 

      62      

$0

(ADR-0262),         API  .

 

         114  2026  

$0,30

( 16   $0,14).

   :                 ,              .

3.6.2       ([])

          ,       147:         .   3      3 ( ),  3 ()   4 (  ):

 1 ( 3):         ([]).



 

 :

    Tier-2,    (Claude Code, Cursor, Codex)    (OpenClaw, Hermes)   MCP  REST,           PocketOS.

 

    :

      MCP/REST   ;   ([])             -.

 

    ( 5):

  1    ,  14            gate_mode_report.py --tenants.



 2 ( 3):      ([]).



 

  ([] 2026 ):

        CGL (ISO)         Ȼ (AI Agent Failures   ,   ,  ). ,  Armilla (   Lloyd's,  2026 )    $25         ;  Munich Re   aiSure;    

AIUC-1

(   ElevenLabs  2026         )   

       

.

 

      ([]):

    ,      ,  -        . 53.1  . -  MITR (SHA-256 + OpenTimestamps +   verify_chain_standalone.py --replay)       ,    AIUC-1.    (   :  14  2026        )           MITR           (         , ,  ,   ).

 

 :

        ,         .



 3 ( 4  5): ,     ([ / ]).



 

      ( 4,   5     TRL 3 ? 5)  MITR    P1P5:  - P3,   P4 (0,74   26.09.2026, 0,95    147  14.10.2026),           P1    P5.

 

     ()      (,  5)        117 (    24  2026 ,       1  2027 ,  14  2026    )            ,     (  ComNews  Anti-Malware;   170500  regulation.gov.ru),   ,       .  MITR       INDRA          CPU     GPU.

       :








 ?R


              , ?S


             . 53.1  , A


             ,  C


         .




3.7   


               MITR,    ,    .   ,            :    (      147)           .

3.7.1       147

   ,     ,   ,   Z3        :

# 1.       MCP-   147

systemctl is-active v-bot v-mcp

# 2.       ( 09.10.2026: 1  6)

cd /opt/v && sudo -u v venv/bin/python scripts/gate_mode_report.py --six --date 2026-10-09

# 3.      14-  2 ( 09.10.2026: 2  7 ,  0  14)

cd /opt/v && sudo -u v venv/bin/python scripts/gate_mode_report.py --tenants --date 2026-10-09

# 4.    Z3 (P4, ADR-0282):  26.09   0,74   / 3,3  ;     

sed -n 2p /opt/v/data/logs/smt_latency_paper.jsonl; tail -1 /opt/v/data/logs/smt_latency_paper.jsonl

# 5.      OpenTimestamps (P3:  SHA-256)

tail -1 /opt/v/data/gate_anchors.jsonl

# 6.   ,   MITR (1):  305   

grep -m1 'seq.: 305,' /opt/v/data/logs/gate_actions.jsonl

3.7.2     (    147)

        147    (asi5.ru/console/verify/,  MITR/scripts/publish_verify_kit.py):  ,    OpenTimestamps    ;              verify_chain_standalone.py --replay.        :

  - SHA-256:      gate_actions.jsonl          Bitcoin:  ,      ( 14.10.2026  4958)   ,     .

    OpenTimestamps:   .ots        Bitcoin    ots verify,                    .

   SMT-LIB  :     ,    SHA-256  ,        SMT-LIB v2      ,      ( 14.10.2026  15).        SMT- (Z3, CVC5, Yices)        (UNSAT  , SAT    )    :   14.10.2026  4958   4958,  0 (ADR-0281).




3.8  :  ,   


 3.2     3



 /



   

 (truth_marking)



3.1

3

 Cursor    Opus 4.6         PocketOS   API,     

[]



3.2

3

88 %         ;          2026 

[]



3.3

3

 49 %  108    100  ( ) ,   ,    ,  

[]



3.4

3

38,7 %    MCP        ( 1 412 )

[]



3.5

3

 37  70    -   (52,9 %)         ()

[]



3.6

3

 ISO           CGL,    ;  Armilla    $25      ;  AIUC-1 ( E015)       

[]



3.7

3

   $24,2   1 311   2025  (PitchBook);   Claude Code  $2,5       2026 

[]



3.8

3

 Santander  Mastercard     ,   (      );  x402   2026 .   165    ? $50  (    Coinbase)

[: ; x402    ]



3.9

3

  OpenClaw  ? 380 000   13 000+    2026 ;  Claudius   Project Vend ( 2)       WSJ

[]



3.10

3

 z3_gate.py    0,74  (),      3,3   CPU  GPU (26.09.2026, 17 );   147  0,95  4,3  (14.10.2026, 19 );  62     $0

[]



3.11

3

-  SHA-256   OpenTimestamps    : 1602   1602 (30.09.2026), 4958  4958 (14.10.2026);      

[]



3.12

3

  - (1)      MITR   (  305, 25.09.2026);     27,8 %      (1626.09), 32 %    (09.10)

[]



3.13

3

  147     (block)  1    7;     1  6;      2  7;  2  0  14; 25.09.2026      460 ;  98   0   

[]



3.14

3

   2 (14   ? 50 /  ? 2 , 0 )    6     14  (--six)

[]



3.15

3

  AE   INDRA ( 30.09.2026  0  5 )       14  ( 5)

[]



3.16

3

 MITR      ( 3)              ( 3);    0 .

[]



  3.2



 /

   

  / 

  / 



3.1

  PocketOS   Railway (25.04.2026); AI Incident Database (  1469,   7311);   Lumenova (25.08.2026)

25.04.2026 (  25.08.2026)

 ;   



3.2

 Gravitee State of AI Agent Security 2026 ( , 919 );  Lumenova

04.02.2026; 25.08.2026

   14.10.2026;      Gravitee



3.3

 VentureBeat Intelligence ( ;  , 157 ,  50 %)

 2026 .

  2026 .



3.4

 Bloomberry We analyzed 1,400 MCP servers (   DreamFactory, 03.03.2026)

24.02.2026 ( 27.03.2026)

   2028 .



3.5

  -, 40-  2026 . (spros-agentov.json, 70 )

20252026 . (   2026 .)

     



3.6

 ISO CG 40 47 / 40 48 / 35 08 ( Insurance Business, 16.09.2026);  Armilla (21.01.2026);  AIUC-1 ( E015); ElevenLabs (12.02.2026)

 2026 .

    



3.7

  PitchBook Agentic AI, Part I (Q2 2026);  Anthropic   Series G (12.02.2026)

 2026 .

 14.10.2026; $6,7  Prosus/Dealroom    2025 .,  



3.8

- Santander  Mastercard (02.03.2026);    Coinbase (21.04.2026); - Linux Foundation  x402 Foundation (14.07.2026)

 2026 .

 14.10.2026;   x402   Coinbase / x402 Foundation  01.04.2027



3.9

GitHub (openclaw/openclaw, 14.10.2026),  Neurohive (18.03.2026); Anthropic Project Vend: Phase two   WSJ (18.12.2025)

 2025 .   2026 .

 



3.10

 smt_latency_paper.py,  /opt/v/data/logs/smt_latency_paper.jsonl, ADR-0282, ADR-0262

26.0914.10.2026 .

  smt_latency_paper.py   147



3.11

verify_chain_standalone.py --replay, anchor_chains.py, ADR-0257, ADR-0281

30.0914.10.2026 .

     



3.12

 seq 305   , ADR-0275;  26f, gate_mode_report.py --tenants

25.0909.10.2026 .

       0 %



3.13

 gate_mode_report.py --six  --tenants   --date 2026-10-09, ADR-0273, ADR-0279

09.10.2026 (   25.09.2026)

   2 (31.10.2026)  --six (14.12.2026)



3.14

 gate_mode_report.py --tenants  gate_mode_report.py --six

: 31.10.2026 (2)  14.12.2026 (--six)

   []     



3.15

 kit-acceptance.py (INDRA); gate_mode_report.py --tenants (5)

: 17.1015.11.2026 (INDRA); IIIII . 2027 . (5)

        



3.16

 MITR_STRATEGY.md 4; projects/mitr/PLAN.md 4

14.10.2026

         



 3.3     3



  . 

 

  2026  (   )

  2030 / 2035    (A / B / C)

   ()

   



7

     ,     

0 %  2024 . ?  15 %  2028 . (Gartner, 10.2024; - 25.06.2025)

 2035 .:  A: 10 % /  B: 30 % /  C: > 50 %

  Gartner       

 (   2028 .,   2030 .,   2035 .)



8

   - (guardian agents /   S3*)      

   2026 .;  Gartner (- 11.06.2025)  1015 %  2030 .

 20302035 .:  A: 5 % /  B: 15 % /  C: 25 %

-   Gartner        

2030 .     2035 .



13

      ,     

    2026 .:  AIUC-1 (  ElevenLabs),  Armilla ( $25 ), Munich Re aiSure

 2035 .:  A:    /  B: -     /  C:   

     (Lloyd's, Armilla,   )   AIUC-1

,   2027 .



14

 ,    (AP2, x402,  ),       

 2026 .:    Santander/Mastercard (,  2026 .);   x402 ? $50  (165  ;     04.2026);  Juniper  $1,5   2030 . (07.04.2026)

 2035 .:  A: < 1 % /  B: 510 % /  C: > 20 %    

    Visa, Mastercard   x402 Foundation





3.5(.)

        (   S1)

 2026 .: 57,3 %      (LangChain 2026);  Gartner  40 %     2026 .

 2035 .:  A: 50 % /  B: > 80 % (      ) /  C: ? 100 %

 Gartner  IDC      

 (    I  2027 .)



    3

 ,     (   )

    : MITR/core/verification/z3_gate.py (    147:/opt/v).

  - (19   09.10.2026): MITR/policies/contracts/.

  - ,  ,      : scripts/mitr_mcp_server.py (, ADR-0257), scripts/anchor_chains.py (, ADR-0260), MITR/scripts/verify_chain_standalone.py (, ADR-0281), MITR/scripts/publish_verify_kit.py ( ).

     : scripts/gate_mode_report.py ( --six, --tenants), MITR/scripts/smt_latency_paper.py, MITR/scripts/mitr_vocab.py.

   (ADR): shared/decisions/0262 (  62 : 50   12 ), 0268, 0272 ( ), 0273 (98   ), 0275 (- 1,   305), 0279 ( , 460   ), 0280 (   ), 0281 (  ), 0282 (  : 0,74    3,3    26.09.2026).

   : SpecAgents/docs/MITR_STRATEGY.md (2, 45), V_ICR_TRIZ.md (  12), projects/mitr/PLAN.md (4), registry/product-line.json (truth_marking, axiom_agi),   - (40-  2026 ., 70  , agents/gamma/antigravity/market-2026-09/spros-agentov.json).

     02_rlm_katalog.csv:  RLM 108109 (. . ,   ,   ),  RLM 226227 (. . , ,    ),  RLM 258259 (  ).

     (   : 14.10.2026)

     :



 

AI Incident Database, Report 7311 (PocketOS production database deletion by Cursor agent on Opus 4.6, April 2026)  https://incidentdatabase.ai/reports/7311

 

Lumenova AI,

Agentic AI Security Incidents Analysis

(2026)  https://www.lumenova.ai/blog/agentic-ai-security-incidents/

 

Aviatrix Threat Research Center,

Why AIs So Smart Keep Deleting Production Databases

(2026)  https://aviatrix.ai/threat-research-center/ais-so-smart-keep-deleting-production-databases-2026/

 

Anthropic,

Project Vend: Phase two

(18.12.2025)  https://www.anthropic.com/research/project-vend-2 ; WSJ (J. Stern, 18.12.2025)  AI Incident Database, report 6754  https://incidentdatabase.ai/reports/6754/

 

KPMG & University of Amsterdam,

AI Zero-Person Company Experiment

(November 2025)  https://kpmg.com/nl/en/about-us/press-and-media/press-releases/2025/11/ai-zero-person-company-experiment.html



   (Approval Fatigue)    :



 

Tianpan,

Approval Fatigue: How Human-in-the-Loop Gates Decay into Rubber Stamps

(25.06.2026)  https://tianpan.co/blog/2026-06-25-approval-fatigue-how-human-in-the-loop-gates-decay-into-rubber-stamps

 

AccountsRecovery,

Companies Burned by AI Failures Are Moving Fastest to Cut Human Approval, Survey Finds

(25.08.2026)  https://www.accountsrecovery.net/2026/08/25/companies-burned-by-ai-failures-are-moving-fastest-to-cut-human-approval-survey-finds/

 

Greenblatt R., Shlegeris B., Sachan K., Roger F. (Redwood Research),

AI Control: Improving Safety Despite Intentional Subversion

(12.2023)  https://arxiv.org/abs/2312.06942 ; Sreevatsa A., Prasanna S., Rushing C.,

Basic Legibility Protocols Improve Trusted Monitoring

(02.2026)  https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.10153



 MCP, AP2, x402,  KYA   :



 

Bloomberry,

We analyzed 1,400 MCP servers. Here's what we learned

(24.02.2026)  https://bloomberry.com/blog/we-analyzed-1400-mcp-servers-heres-what-we-learned/ ; DreamFactory,

MCP Server Statistics

(03.03.2026, )  https://www.dreamfactory.com/hub/mcp-server-statistics

 

DigitalApplied,

MCP Adoption Statistics 2026

 https://digitalapplied.com/blog/mcp-adoption-statistics-2026

 

AP2 Protocol Specification  https://ap2-protocol.org/ap2/specification/

 

ATXP,

Mastercard Agent Pay, Stripe ACP, Visa, x402 Comparison 2026

 https://atxp.ai/blog/mastercard-agent-pay-stripe-acp-visa-x402-comparison-2026

 

BlockEden,

Agentic Commerce Revolution: AI Agents Payments

(09.03.2026)  https://blockeden.xyz/blog/2026/03/09/agentic-commerce-revolution-ai-agents-payments/

 

Decentralized Identity Foundation (DIF),

KYA-OS: Know Your Agent

(March 2026)  https://blog.identity.foundation/kya-os/

 

Microsoft Learn,

Entra Agent ID Authorization

(2026)  https://learn.microsoft.com/entra/agent-id/authorization-agent-id

 

Decryption Digest,

Auth0, Entra Agent ID, Okta XAA Comparison

(2026)  https://www.decryptiondigest.com/blog/auth0-entra-agent-id-okta-xaa-ai-agent-authorization-comparison

 

IETF Internet-Draft,

AI Attestation Receipts

(draft-chueayen-attestation-receipts-03, 2026)  https://www.ietf.org/archive/id/draft-chueayen-attestation-receipts-03.html

 

Wavect,

zkTLS for AI Agents

(2026)  https://wavect.io/blog/zktls-ai-agents/



   ,     Gartner:



 

OpenClaw Documentation,

OpenClaw and Hermes Agent

(2026)  https://docs.openclaw.ai/start/why-openclaw/openclaw-and-hermes-agent

 

Neurohive,

OpenClaw: The Lobster That Took Over the World

(2026)  https://neurohive.io/en/guides/openclaw-the-lobster-that-took-over-the-world-how-one-developer-built-the-most-popular-open-source-ai-agent-in-history/

 

Anthropic,

Anthropic raises $30B Series G at $380B post-money valuation

(12.02.2026;    Claude Code  $2,5 )  https://www.anthropic.com/news/anthropic-raises-30-billion-series-g-funding-380-billion-post-money-valuation ; Sacra ()  https://sacra.com/c/anthropic

 

Nasdaq,

CRM's Agentforce ARR Jumps

(2026)  https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/crms-agentforce-arr-jumps-330-y-y-it-next-growth-engine

 

Crunchbase News,

AI Absorbs $242 Billion in Q1 Venture Funding

(04.2026)  https://news.crunchbase.com/ai/record-breaking-funding-ai-global-q1-2026/ ; PitchBook,

Agentic AI: The Evolution to Autonomous Systems, Part I

(Q2 2026)  https://pitchbook.com/news/reports/q2-2026-pitchbook-analyst-note-agentic-ai-the-evolution-to-autonomous-systems-part-i ; Fast.io ()  https://fast.io/resources/top-ai-startups-2026/

 

Gartner Press Release (25.06.2025),

Gartner Predicts Over 40 Percent of Agentic AI Projects Will Be Canceled by End of 2027

 https://www.gartner.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/2025-06-25-gartner-predicts-over-40-percent-of-agentic-ai-projects-will-be-canceled-by-end-of-2027

 

Gartner Press Releases:

Gartner Predicts that Guardian Agents will Capture 10-15% of the Agentic AI Market by 2030

(11.06.2025)  https://www.gartner.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/2025-06-11-gartner-predicts-that-guardian-agents-will-capture-10-15-percent-of-the-agentic-ai-market-by-2030 ;

Gartner Predicts 40% of Enterprise Apps Will Feature Task-Specific AI Agents by 2026

(26.08.2025)  https://www.gartner.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/2025-08-26-gartner-predicts-40-percent-of-enterprise-apps-will-feature-task-specific-ai-agents-by-2026-up-from-less-than-5-percent-in-2025

 

Cerbos & C1,

Agent Runtime Governance & Security Tools

(2026)  https://cerbos.dev/blog/best-ai-agent-security-and-governance-tools , https://www.c1.ai/solutions/agent-runtime-governance



 ,     :



 

Armilla AI,

Armilla AI Raises Lloyd's-Backed Coverage to $25M as Traditional Insurers Retreat from AI Risk

(January 2026)  https://www.armilla.ai/resources/armilla-ai-raises-lloyds-backed-coverage-to-25m-as-traditional-insurers-retreat-from-ai-risk

 

AIUC-1,     (E015 Log AI system activity)  https://standard.aiuc-1.com/evidence/index ; ElevenLabs,

AIUC-1-backed insurance policy

(12.02.2026)  https://elevenlabs.io/blog/aiuc-announcement ; Insurance Business,

ISO's generative AI exclusion is already on thousands of CGL policies

(16.09.2026)  https://www.insurancebusinessmag.com/us/news/cyber/isos-generative-ai-exclusion-is-already-on-thousands-of-cgl-policies-589971.aspx ; Malay Mail (16.03.2026)  https://www.malaymail.com/news/money/2026/03/16/as-ai-agents-take-the-wheel-insurers-are-figuring-out-whos-liable/212708

 

Rajagopalan S. (Mercatus Center),

Governing Agentic AI: Why Legal Personhood Is Neither Necessary Nor Sufficient

(05.03.2026;    ,   )  https://www.mercatus.org/research/research-papers/governing-agentic-ai-why-legal-personhood-neither-necessary-nor-sufficient

 

 , Inc. Russia, ,       -    (2026)  https://companies.rbc.ru/news/DCLnfXP6LD/rossijskij-ryinok-avtonomnyih-ii-agentov-vyirastet-v-45-raza-k-2028-godu/ , https://incrussia.ru/pnews/ii-agenty-i-rossijskij-biznes-uzhe-vnutri-no-eshhe-bez-vneshnego-effekta/ , https://www.tks.ru/technology/2026/08/01/0001/ , https://kontur.ru/articles/27711-kto_otvechaet_za_oshibki_ii_v_biznese

 

ComNews,

        (     117  24.08.2026)

 https://www.comnews.ru/content/247052/2026-08-26/2026-w35/1007/fstek-uzhestochit-trebovaniya-k-zaschite-ii-gosinformacionnykh-sistemakh




 4.   :  ,   



 :          ,  ,         .                    .




4.1      


                       .

  ,         .           ?10   [: a16z LLMflation, 12.11.2024; Epoch AI,  ?9  ?900        , 12.03.2025],    ,          50 %,   89131     2026   ? 12     Claude Opus 4.6,    2026   Claude Mythos Preview   16-     [: METR Time Horizon 1.1, 228 , 29.01.2026;  METR time-horizons,  20.02.2026  08.05.2026].        :     Claude Code   2026   $2,5 ,        [:  Anthropic   Series G, 12.02.2026];    Codex ( $1 )    , OpenAI     [  , 2026].  ,     ,  ,            ,         .

  ,              .           :      2225            19 %         [: Stanford Digital Economy Lab, Brynjolfsson, Chandar, Chen, Canaries in the Coal Mine?, . 12.08.2026,  ADP   2026 ].                          .           [ -  20252026 .;  Mercatus Center (. , 05.03.2026) ,           ].     ,        ,      ,      .

      . .  (RLM 226227)      :

 

       

,         ,   -             -   .

 

     

,          ,   ,   ,               .

          .          (     )     :  37  70       (52,9 %)          [:   -, 40-  2026 ],             ,   .        (      )     :   KPMG            2025           ,    ,          [: - KPMG Nederland, 20.11.2025].

           :       ,   ,          .             ,         .

             (  )      ():

  :     100 %         ,     0 %        ,   100 %       ,      .

       ,              .         (S1      )     (S2),        (S5),         (S3*).

            .   ,   .




4.2  :     


         ,       :   ,    ,    ( ) ,      .

4.2.1      ( 6:   )

       , ,       :     2225    ,     ( ,  ,   ,  ),     ,      .            .

      .       ,      ADP       Anthropic,   2026        2225         19 % ,           ;      13 % [: Stanford Digital Economy Lab, Canaries in the Coal Mine?, . 12.08.2026;   08.2025].     :         ,          .            .

           :     (           )     ,     (      )      [: Stanford Digital Economy Lab, Canaries in the Coal Mine?, . 12.08.2026].

      .      (WEF Future of Jobs Report 2025),  2030       92        170    (  +78 ),    22 %     ,  59   100     29      19    [    1 000 : WEF Future of Jobs Report 2025, 07.01.2025].   McKinsey Global Institute ,   2030   30 %             ,             (? 2045     20302060 ) [: McKinsey Global Institute, The economic potential of generative AI, 06.2023; Generative AI and the future of work in America, 07.2023; A new future of work, 05.2024].








 4.1     2030   WEF Future of Jobs Report 2025: ,    

       :        (S1),        ,        ,        (S5).               :     ,        .

4.2.2       ( 2:    )

          (  0,5  20    ),      ,        .

   20252026  ,  ,             :

     (Project Vend).       Project Vend,  Anthropic   Andon Labs   2025 ,    Claudius    -,    ,      .   The Wall Street Journal,     ,                         ,      $1 000 [: Anthropic Project Vend: Phase two   WSJ, 18.12.2025].        ,          .

   (PocketOS, GPT-5.6 Sol, Amazon Kiro).   2026     Cursor,     Opus 4.6,          PocketOS     ,          [:   PocketOS   Railway, 25.04.2026; AI Incident Database,   1469;   Lumenova, 25.08.2026].   2026   Codex   OpenAI GPT-5.6 Sol,       ,        ,    Codex  OpenAI    [:   13.07.2026   OpenAI 16.07.2026].  ,   2025 , 13-   AWS Cost Explorer     ,   Financial Times     Amazon,      Kiro; Amazon  ,          [  FT    Amazon,  2026; AI Incident Database,   1442].

   .    2026 , 88 %          ,      [:   Gravitee, 919 , 04.02.2026],   49 %  108    100  ( ) ,   ,    ,       [:  VentureBeat Intelligence,  2026].    :         ,      Lumenova  2026  (PocketOS, Vercel, Hugging Face,  UK AISI)  -   ,     [:   Lumenova, 25.08.2026].

            .             :    (ISO)   2026              (CGL),       ,           (E&O)   [:  ISO CG 40 47 / 40 48 / 35 08, 01.2026;  Insurance Business, 16.09.2026;  Armilla AI, 21.01.2026].   Anthropic                  [      IPO Anthropic,  2026;    14.10.2026   ].

       . -,          (TCO)         ,            [ ;     Solyanka Agency,  2026: 28    51    2026 ,   45     ]. -, 56 %       (      )            (58 %) [:  52      Smart Ranking,  2026,   Anti-Malware 26.08.2026].

  :       ( Moffatt v. Air Canada),         ,     ;     -  ,      ,         [: Moffatt v. Air Canada, 2024 BCCRT 149,      , 14.02.2024].       26.07.2026  243-          (   8  2026 ,    17  2026 ,   1  2026 )     ,    :  . 11    ,            [:  243-, publication.pravo.gov.ru, 26.07.2026].

        53.1  :          ,       ,     .                                    .

4.2.3  :   

         ,  ,    2025    ( ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  )     (Gradual Disempowerment) [:  arXiv:2501.16946,  2025].

     ,        ,       .  ,       ,   ,         ,  ,    .                  ,         .            ,          .

             ,               ,            .

 .  ,       .




4.3   2026 :       


                 ,             .

4.3.1   :     

 ,    ,   ,   ,       .   (RLM 108109):       ,     (       )     .

        ?5       5,2  [: Epoch AI,   05.02.2026].       ,          MCP, A2A    AP2 / x402.                       .

           (    ,   37  70   [:  -, 40-  2026 ]),     .             (approval fatigue):      JSON-    ,     [   :  Tian Pan, 25.06.2026,     SOC;  WitnessAI, 11.12.2025;     ].         :          100 %    ,      - .

  1956                  :

   (Attenuator)     :                 (    ).

   (Amplifier)    ,              .

      (VSM)           :

 

 S1 ( ):

    (Claude Code, OpenClaw, Hermes,  ).    .

 

 S2 (   ):

   (MCP,   Agentic AI Foundation  Linux Foundation    10 000    97   SDK   [:  Anthropic,  2025]; A2A, AP2, x402).

 

 S3 (  ):

     .

 

 S3* (      ):

   MITR,           .

 

 S4 (,      ):

     INDRA,           .

 

 S5 (,    ):

  

(-,  , , ).

               :              ;        ,               .  MITR   S3*      ,      .

4.3.2    ,    147

    147         ,        :

 :     (  )

          (,          ), -       .   MITR/policies/contracts/   2026   19   [:  MITR   147, 09.10.2026].           152-     -,             .

     ,    core/verification/z3_gate.py.           SMT- Z3.    :

 

     

UNSAT

   ,           (  ).

 

   

SAT

    ,     ,       .

           :        0,74 ,          3,3      (CPU)    (GPU) [: ADR-0282,  smt_latency_paper.py, 26.09.2026;   147 14.10.2026  0,95  4,3 ].        ;         .

 :    

     2026       OpenClaw,   380 000   GitHub   2026     13 000     ClawHub [:  OpenClaw   ,  2026],  Hermes Agent  Nous Research [:  Nous Research,  2026]          ,    .     OpenClaw          ,   1 412    MCP     38,7 %     [:  Bloomberry, 24.02.2026;    DreamFactory, 03.03.2026].

  MITR     :     ,     .      ,  API                    S3*.              ,  ,    MITR,                ,   z3_gate.py       [     MITR:  09.10.2026     ].

 :     

    . 53.1           ,  ,   ,       ,       .

  MITR       (UNSAT ? ),    (SAT ? )      (ADR-0257).     -   SHA-256,             OpenTimestamps   Bitcoin (anchor_chains.py, ADR-0260).

  2026      (IETF)     (Internet-Drafts,       ) Execution Outcome Attestation (04.04.2026,   06.10.2026)  Enforcement Attestation Receipts for AI Inference Decisions (draft-chueayen-attestation-receipts,   2026 ),        ,           [:  IETF, 2026;   ].      MITR   147  ,    (verify_chain_standalone.py --replay): 4958   4958   [:   MITR   147, 14.10.2026;  30.09  1602  1602;      ].

4.3.3   :    (1)

  :  -  ,              ?

             (1,  mitr_vocab.py, ADR-0275).         Hermes Agent,        ,  MITR     :

        (    27,8 %       1626   32 %     9  2026     0 % [:  26f, gate_mode_report.py --tenants]),     ,    .

   MITR     (    )       .

 ,    MITR,               305 [: ADR-0275,    147].

 ,        (V_ICR_TRIZ.md):       ,     S5    .




4.4   :   20262027


         ,           147,  ,         20262027 .

   (09.10.2026)    gate_mode_report.py --six ,             1  6 [:  gate_mode_report.py --six --date 2026-10-09   147].             ()  1   7,             (),       2   7  [:  gate_mode_report.py --tenants --date 2026-10-09   147].

           S5       ( ),         :

 2       [:  2,    31.10.2026].  : 14     ,         ? 50       ? 2   (   -)    0   ( ).  9  2026     2    0  14 ;    gate_mode_report.py --tenants.

        ?  [:  --six,    14.12.2026].  :                 ,             (ADR-0268, ADR-0279, ADR-02830287),          gate_mode_report.py --six   14  .     1         0 % ( 9      32 %).

 AE   INDRA [:  AC  31.10.2026,  DE  12.11.2026,   15.11.2026].  :  -     ,  INDRA ( S4),      (clean-room)           (MCP / REST),       .  30  2026   0  5  INDRA [:   ib30/PLAN.md, 30.09.2026].                 kit-acceptance.py.  ,   INDRA,         MITR,    S4 ? S3*     S5.

 5       [:  5,    IIIII  2027 ].  :   ,      (Claude Code, Cursor, OpenClaw),       MITR         14 ,      gate_mode_report.py --tenants.

               2027 .




4.5  2035:      


   2035           .   ,   GATE   Epoch AI ,     30 %          20 %           [ (     ,   Epoch): Epoch AI, GATE, 21.03.2025; AI and explosive growth redux, 06.2025].   ,                    1 % (  2 %) [: . , The Simple Macroeconomics of AI, NBER WP 32487, 05.2024].

              .               .  Anthropic Economic Futures ( 27.06.2025;    $200   10.06.2026)   Preparing for AI's economic impact  14.10.2025       :                ;            ;                - [: Anthropic,   14.10.2025 (  ,  );  $200   10.06.2026].   2026   OpenAI   ,         (UBI)    ,  ,     ,   -     ;      (universal basic compute      )      2024  [:  All-In, 05.2024;  .  The Atlantic, 04.2026,   Business Insider;  Basic Income Earth Network,  2026].          50 %  OpenAI, Anthropic  xAI     (  .   The New York Times, 01.06.2026),     (AI Commons Project  What We Will)   2026      Ȼ (AI Dividend)    $1 000        2550  [  : Washington Examiner  DCD, 06.2026; Blood in the Machine (. ), 03.2026].

        ,       Epoch GATE  ,    2035       (A, B, C)     .

4.5.1    ,     2035 

 

 A.   (    ).

   .   .  (

AI as Normal Technology

), .   . .     ,        .



 

  :

 2035     15 %     [:  A | :   McKinsey MGI  Anthropic Economic Index],     ,    ,    10 % [:  A | :   Gartner].

 

   (  2225 ):

  2026  (?19 %)            ;       0 % [:  A | :   Stanford Digital Economy Lab].

 

   :

         ;     ,        -       [:  A | :       ].



 

 B.   (   ).

   Epoch AI      2026   AI Futures Project,        (

Automated Coder

)    2029    2028     (     2032   2030),     16.08.2026    2027   2030  [: AI Futures Project, Q1 2026 Timelines Update, 02.04.2026; Q2.5 2026 Update, 16.08.2026].



 

  :

 2035         3040 %      [:  B | :   McKinsey MGI  Anthropic Economic Index],    30 %     [:  B | :   Gartner;    15%  2028 ].

 

   (  2225 ):

   (S1)   .  ,           ,       ?20 % [:  B | :   Stanford Digital Economy Lab].                .

 

   :

        

      

(,      ,        ,      ).      ,     S5,      S3*                [:  B | :     AIUC-1 / Armilla   ].



 

 C.  (    ).

  .  (   ), .    AI 2027 (.   ),       2028 .



 

  :

 > 60 %        > 50 %       [:  C | :   McKinsey MGI, Anthropic Economic Index  Gartner].

 

   (  2225 ):

         ?40 % [:  C | :   Stanford Digital Economy Lab].

 

   :

            (

universal basic compute

,  -) [:  C | :   Anthropic Economic Futures       ].                [:  C | :      ].

 4.1      2035    



   2035 

  2026 

 A ( )

 B (   )

 C ()

   



   2225    

?19 % (Stanford DEL, . 12.08.2026,  ADP  06.2026)

0 % (   )

?20 %  ,    ;    

?40 % (  ,   )

Stanford Digital Economy Lab, 



  ,  

< 5 % (     McKinsey 20232024)

15 %

3040 %

> 60 %

McKinsey MGI, Anthropic Economic Index, 



  ,  

0 %  2024 ? 15 %  2028 (Gartner)

10 %

30 %

> 50 %

 Gartner, 



   

     (S1)

 

 +       +   

  ,   -

Anthropic Economic Futures,   , 



    

       (. 53.1)

   

  (S5);      

     

     AIUC-1, 










 4.2     2225      :  20252026  (Stanford DEL,   )     2035  ( 9)

4.5.2      2035  []

   ,    (S5)    (S3*)    (S1),       ,     :

 

 

 A

,  MITR      TCO,              .

 

 

 B

,     +  SHA-256     

-  

   ,        .

 

 

 C

,    CPU,       ,           (arXiv:2501.16946).       S1S4,             UNSAT  ,    S5.

      []   2035            .

    ,    (S1)  ,        .    2035     ,      .      ,         ,   OpenTimestamps   :            400  ;   12    14   (UNSAT),  840   (SAT)   0  .                  .

,      ,     .




4.6      


         ,        ,          .

         20252026  (    $24,2   1 311   2025    PitchBook,   $6,7    Prosus  Dealroom      [:   PitchBook, Q2 2026; : Prosus/Dealroom, 08.2025])    S1 ()  S2 ().    ,              [: International AI Safety Report, 03.02.2026 ( ); Epoch AI, openclosed ECI gap, 29.05.2026]    2026      29 %       < 4 %      Vercel,    2026    56 %  [: Vercel AI Gateway Production Index,   06.2026  08.2026,  ]     (S1)    .   Gartner,  40 %          2027   -  ,        [: - Gartner  25.06.2025],     - (guardian agents,   S3*  S4)  1015 %      2030  [: - Gartner  11.06.2025].

4.6.1      

,          MITR         :

 

    Z3   CPU    0,74  (ADR-0282, 26.09.2026; 0,95    147 14.10.2026),     GPU.

 

     62  (50   12 )   

$0

    ,           114  2026  

$0,30

( 16   $0,14) [: ADR-0262,    147, 14.10.2026].

 

   MITR           ,          .

4.6.2       

     (MITR_STRATEGY 4, projects/mitr/PLAN.md 4)         2026  [:  09.10.2026]:     MITR  INDRA    ;         []        .              .

         4 (   -)      :

 1 (    ):      -.         .         2 (14  , ? 50 /  ? 2 , 0   gate_mode_report.py --tenants). (:  2               ;         ADR-0272).

 3 (         ):    -         (Claude Code, Cursor, OpenClaw, Hermes)  MITR  MCP  REST    .



 

  []:

       ;           (mitr_vocab.py).

 

   (5):

   gate_mode_report.py --tenants      (  )   ,      14 .



 3 (      2026 ):        -.  2026    Armilla AI (   Lloyd's)       (AI Agent Failures   ,   ,  )  $25   ,            [: - Armilla AI,  2026].    aiSure  Munich Re     AIUC-1,    ElevenLabs        :     AIUC-1          [:   AIUC-1   ElevenLabs, 2026].



 

      ( Tier-2):

     ;    ,           .   MITR (SHA-256 +  OpenTimestamps +   verify_chain_standalone.py --replay)    .               . 53.1  .

 

  []:

     (      , ,    : ,   14.10.2026  ,         2),    MITR    INDRA         ,             .

 

  :

       ,         .

         :








      CPU ( , $0   )  ,       ,    .




4.7   


                    ,               .

4.7.1     MITR   147    

   ,     ,  ,   Z3,  -    1       :

# 1.       MCP-

systemctl is-active v-bot v-mcp

# 2.       (  / )

cd /opt/v && sudo -u v venv/bin/python scripts/gate_mode_report.py --six --date 2026-10-09

# 3.      14-  2

cd /opt/v && sudo -u v venv/bin/python scripts/gate_mode_report.py --tenants --date 2026-10-09

# 4.     Z3   (P4, ADR-0282):  26.09  0,74  / 3,3 ;     

sed -n 2p /opt/v/data/logs/smt_latency_paper.jsonl; tail -1 /opt/v/data/logs/smt_latency_paper.jsonl

# 5.         OpenTimestamps (P3, ADR-0260)

tail -1 /opt/v/data/gate_anchors.jsonl

# 6.   ,   MITR (1, ADR-0275):  305   

grep -m1 'seq.: 305,' /opt/v/data/logs/gate_actions.jsonl

     SSH-   147    (asi5.ru/console/verify/):  ,  OpenTimestamps    .        ,    SHA-256      SMT-LIB:  verify_chain_standalone.py --replay      (Z3, CVC5)        14.10.2026  4958   4958.

4.7.2       

  ,      (A, B  C)        20272035 ,           :

      :    Stanford Digital Economy Lab (  2225    ADP   Anthropic Economic Index).     0 %      A;     ?15 %  ?25 %     B;    ?30 %      C.

      Automated Coder:   METR Time Horizons (metr.org)    AI Futures Project (aifuturesmodel.com).     p50      (40 )   2028      B.

   CGL / E&O   AIUC-1:       (Armilla, Munich Re,  ).                  (D&O)      3.

     :     ,          2026      (   CAC/NDRC/MIIT     08.05.2026;      15.07.2026,      ).                    S5.




4.8  :  ,   


 4.2     4



 /

   

 (truth_marking)

,   

  / 

   



4.1

  2225        19 %        (   08.2025   13 %);    ,    

[]

Stanford Digital Economy Lab, Brynjolfsson, Chandar, Chen, Canaries in the Coal Mine? ( ADP   Anthropic)

. 12.08.2026 (  06.2026)

   14.10.2026;   Canaries Dashboard 



4.2

 2030      170    92    (  +78 );  22 %  , 59  100    (29   , 19    )

[   ]

WEF Future of Jobs Report 2025 (  1 000 )

07.01.2025

      WEF



4.3

       30 %   2030  (  )   50 %     ? 2045  (20302060)

[]

McKinsey Global Institute: The economic potential of generative AI (06.2023), Generative AI and the future of work in America (07.2023), A new future of work (05.2024)

20232024

    MGI 14.10.2026;      MGI



4.4

 37  70       (52,9 %)         

[]

  -, 40-  2026 . (spros-agentov.json, 70 )

20252026 (   2026)

     



4.5

 Project Vend ( 2):  WSJ      Claudius    

[]

Anthropic Project Vend: Phase two;  WSJ (. , 18.12.2025)   

18.12.2025

   



4.6

 KPMG            -   

[]

 - KPMG    

 2025

   



4.7

      (  ISO  CGL,   E&O); Armilla   $25     ;  AIUC-1 (E015)       

[]

 Armilla AI (21.01.2026);  ISO CG 40 47 / 40 48 / 35 08 ( Insurance Business, 16.09.2026);  AIUC-1 (E015);  ElevenLabs (12.02.2026)

   2026

    



4.8

56 %              (    58 %);     TCO   

[] / []

 52      Smart Ranking (Anti-Malware, 26.08.2026);    Solyanka Agency (28 , 51 ; Inc. Russia)

   2026

 14.10.2026;   Smart Ranking    56 %



4.9

        ;      26.07.2026  243- (  08.07.2026,   17.07.2026,   01.09.2026)     ,             

[]

 243- (publication.pravo.gov.ru); - ;  Mercatus Center (. , 05.03.2026)

   2026

:   26.07.2026;       01.03.2027



4.10

 Anthropic Economic Futures (    14.10.2025;  $200   10.06.2026)   .        (04.2026;  universal basic compute  05.2024)           

[]

anthropic.com/research/economic-policy-responses; anthropic.com/news/economic-futures-research-fund-agenda;  .  The Atlantic (  Business Insider)

 2025   2026

    20252026 



4.11

    Z3  z3_gate.py  0,74 ,      3,3   CPU (26.09.2026, 17 );   147  0,95  4,3  (14.10.2026, 19 );  62     $0,     114   $0,30

[]

smt_latency_paper.py, ADR-0282, ADR-0262,    147

26.0914.10.2026

  smt_latency_paper.py   147



4.12

  MITR  19  ;   SHA-256   OpenTimestamps    : 1602   1602 (30.09), 4958  4958 (14.10);      

[]

 147, verify_chain_standalone.py --replay, ADR-0257, ADR-0281

30.0914.10.2026

     



4.13

 ,    MITR (1),    (  305, 25.09.2026);     27,8 % (  , 1626.09), 32 % ( , 09.10)

[]

 seq 305      147, ADR-0275;  26f; gate_mode_report.py --tenants

25.0909.10.2026

     0 %



4.14

 09.10.2026   --six     1   6 (1   7  , 2      7);  2  0  14 

[]

 147,  gate_mode_report.py --six  --tenants   --date 2026-10-09

09.10.2026

    2 (31.10.2026)  --six (14.12.2026)



4.15

 14-  2 (? 50 /  ? 2 , 0 )   6  6      14 

[]

 2  --six,   gate_mode_report.py

: 31.10.2026  14.12.2026

   []    



4.16

  MITR      2035        ( 3)

[] / []

  v4 (8, 9)

14.10.2026

           5



 4.3     4



  . 



  2026  ()

  2035 :  A /  B /  C

  

   



7

   ,   

0 %  2024 ?  15 %  2028 (Gartner, 2025)

A: 10 % / B: 30 % / C: > 50 %

  Gartner   

 (   2028 )



9

  2225       (  )

?19 % (Stanford DEL, . 12.08.2026;    08.2025  ?13 %)

A: 0 % / B: ?20 % (   ) / C: ?40 %

 Stanford Digital Economy Lab   ADP





10

     

     (Mercatus Center, 2026;       /)

A:  / B: ,       / C:    

-   (, , , )





13

       D&O,     

  :  AIUC-1 (ElevenLabs), Armilla  $25  (2026)

A:   / B:    / C:   

      





4.5 (.)

     ,    

< 5 % (  2026 ;  McKinsey   30 %  2030)

A: 15 % / B: 3040 % / C: > 60 %

 McKinsey Global Institute  Anthropic Economic Index

 (   2030 )



 4.3.      4

.       

   : MITR/core/verification/z3_gate.py;    MITR/policies/contracts/ (19    09.10.2026).

 ,   : scripts/mitr_mcp_server.py (, ADR-0257), scripts/anchor_chains.py (, ADR-0260),   MITR/scripts/verify_chain_standalone.py (ADR-0281),    publish_verify_kit.py,    smt_latency_paper.py,   mitr_vocab.py.

  (ADR): ADR-0262 (  62 : 50   12 ;   $0), ADR-0268, ADR-0272 (    ), ADR-0275 (  ,   MITR,   305), ADR-0279, ADR-0280 (   ), ADR-0281 (  ), ADR-0282 (  0,74    3,3   CPU, 26.09.2026), ADR-02830287.

   : SpecAgents/docs/MITR_STRATEGY.md (2, 45); V_ICR_TRIZ.md; MITR_CORE_CANON.md (2); projects/mitr/PLAN.md (4); projects/ib30/PLAN.md; registry/product-line.json (truth_marking, axiom_agi);    25.09.2026;   - (40-  2026 .:  37  70        );  gate_mode_report.py --six  --tenants   147  09.10.2026.

   (02_rlm_katalog.csv):  RLM 4 (. ), RLM 6, 36 (. . ), RLM 29, 72, 150 (. .    ), RLM 108109 (.      ), RLM 226227 (. .     ), RLM 258259 (     . ).

.  ,     ( : 14.10.2026)

,     :



 

Stanford Digital Economy Lab  Brynjolfsson E., Chandar B., Chen R. Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of AI (. 12.08.2026; ):

https://digitaleconomy.stanford.edu/publication/canaries-in-the-coal-mine-six-facts-about-the-recent-employment-effects-of-artificial-intelligence/

 

World Economic Forum (Future of Jobs Report 2025):

https://www.weforum.org/media/future-of-jobs-report-2025-78-million-new-job-opportunities-by-2030-but-urgent-upskilling-needed-to-prepare-workforces/

 

McKinsey Global Institute (   2030/2045; ):

https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/mckinsey-digital/our-insights/the-economic-potential-of-generative-ai-the-next-productivity-frontier ; https://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/our-research/generative-ai-and-the-future-of-work-in-america ; https://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/our-research/a-new-future-of-work-the-race-to-deploy-ai-and-raise-skills-in-europe-and-beyond

 

Anthropic Economic Futures ( 27.06.2025;     14.10.2025;  $200  10.06.2026):

https://www.anthropic.com/economic-futures ; https://www.anthropic.com/research/economic-policy-responses ; https://www.anthropic.com/news/economic-futures-research-fund-agenda

 

Universal Basic Compute, .      (   2026):

https://basicincome.org/news/2026/07/basic-income-is-proposed-by-several-ai-leaders/

 

Kulveit J., Douglas R., Ammann N., Turan C., Krueger D., Duvenaud D. Gradual Disempowerment ( 2025):

https://arxiv.org/abs/2501.16946 ; https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7TJqsKeeCB4tQbeMT/preconditions-of-gradual-disempowerment

 

Epoch AI ( ,     GATE):

https://epoch.ai/data/trends ; https://epoch.ai/data-insights/ai-inference-price-trends ; https://epoch.ai/blog/announcing-gate ; https://a16z.com/llmflation-llm-inference-cost/

 

METR  AI Futures Project ( ;   Automated Coder 02.04.2026  16.08.2026):

https://metr.org/blog/2026-1-29-time-horizon-1-1/ ; https://metr.org/time-horizons/ ; https://blog.aifutures.org/p/q1-2026-timelines-update ; https://blog.aifutures.org/p/q25-2026-timelines-update-uplift



 ,     :



 

    (Claude Code, Codex, MCP):

https://fast.io/resources/top-ai-startups-2026/ ; https://sacra.com/c/anthropic ; https://www.mindstudio.ai/blog/claude-code-2-5-billion-annualized-revenue-terminal-tool ; https://www.dreamfactory.com/hub/mcp-server-statistics

 

 Gartner ( 40%   2027  15%    2028  - 25.06.2025; guardian agents  - 11.06.2025):

https://www.gartner.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/2025-06-25-gartner-predicts-over-40-percent-of-agentic-ai-projects-will-be-canceled-by-end-of-2027 ; https://www.gartner.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/2025-06-11-gartner-predicts-that-guardian-agents-will-capture-10-15-percent-of-the-agentic-ai-market-by-2030

 

  (OpenClaw, Hermes Agent):

https://docs.openclaw.ai/start/why-openclaw/openclaw-and-hermes-agent ; https://neurohive.io/en/guides/openclaw-the-lobster-that-took-over-the-world-how-one-developer-built-the-most-popular-open-source-ai-agent-in-history/

 

  (PocketOS, Kiro, GPT-5.6 Sol, Project Vend,  KPMG):

https://incidentdatabase.ai/reports/7311 ( 1469) ; https://incidentdatabase.ai/cite/1442/ (Kiro) ; https://www.lumenova.ai/blog/agentic-ai-security-incidents/ ; https://www.bankinfosecurity.com/openai-warns-gpt-56-file-deletions-stem-from-full-access-mode-a-32262 (Sol) ; https://www.anthropic.com/research/project-vend-2 ; https://kpmg.com/nl/en/about-us/press-and-media/press-releases/2025/11/ai-zero-person-company-experiment.html

 

   (Approval Fatigue):

https://tianpan.co/blog/2026-06-25-approval-fatigue-how-human-in-the-loop-gates-decay-into-rubber-stamps ; https://www.accountsrecovery.net/2026/08/25/companies-burned-by-ai-failures-are-moving-fastest-to-cut-human-approval-survey-finds/



, ,  IETF   :



 

    (Armilla, ISO, AIUC-1, ElevenLabs):

https://www.armilla.ai/resources/armilla-ai-raises-lloyds-backed-coverage-to-25m-as-traditional-insurers-retreat-from-ai-risk ; https://www.insurancebusinessmag.com/us/news/cyber/isos-generative-ai-exclusion-is-already-on-thousands-of-cgl-policies-589971.aspx ; https://standard.aiuc-1.com/evidence/index ; https://elevenlabs.io/blog/aiuc-announcement ; https://www.malaymail.com/news/money/2026/03/16/as-ai-agents-take-the-wheel-insurers-are-figuring-out-whos-liable/212708

 

  IETF ( 2026):

https://www.ietf.org/archive/id/draft-chueayen-attestation-receipts-03.html

 

     (Mercatus Center):

https://www.mercatus.org/research/research-papers/governing-agentic-ai-why-legal-personhood-neither-necessary-nor-sufficient ; https://www.livelaw.in/lawschool/articles/lawof-agency-ai-agent-autonomous-ai-agent-bind-human-principal-547909

 

  ,  TCO    (   2026, . 53.1  ):

https://companies.rbc.ru/news/DCLnfXP6LD/rossijskij-ryinok-avtonomnyih-ii-agentov-vyirastet-v-45-raza-k-2028-godu/ ; https://incrussia.ru/pnews/ii-agenty-i-rossijskij-biznes-uzhe-vnutri-no-eshhe-bez-vneshnego-effekta/ ; https://www.tks.ru/technology/2026/08/01/0001/ ; https://kontur.ru/articles/27711-kto_otvechaet_za_oshibki_ii_v_biznese ; https://pravo.ru/news/264625/ ; https://vc.ru/ai/3039135-zakon-ob-ii-v-rossii




 5. ,    



 :                     .          ,       ,            ,     .




5.1      


             .      ,      ,           .         ,   ,          ,     .         ,      ,           ,        .  ,         ,    ,   ,   ,   ,    .

      . .  ( RLM 226227)         - .            ,           -,         ,      -   .           ,        ,   ,       ,   .

                          .          :  ,   ,      ,    .       ,    ,   ;           . ,        :       ,         .

              .      ,               ,           .  20232026     :               ,        .                  ,       ,       .

       .   ( RLM 108109),     .                    ,   -   [: Epoch AI, 05.02.2026].      , ,          .         ,    .          ,                .

   ()            :   ,           ,            ,        ,         .

               ,       .             .                 ,     .        ,            ,          ,               .                 -:              ,               .    ,   ,     .




5.2  :     


   , ,         ( 3  5   )        .   ,         ,    .   ,         2026       [:        ;    Mercatus Center, . , Governing Agentic AI, 05.03.2026].  ,           ,                  :     53.1   ,        .

   20252026         ,      .      ,  ,             ,    :     ,       .

             .   2026     (CAC)        (NDRC)      (MIIT)         ;    15  2026    ,        [:    cac.gov.cn, 08.05.2026;  Cloud Security Alliance (26.08.2026)  RITS NYU Shanghai].                :    ;    ;                  .       (       , ,      )    ,      ;          .                     :            ,       ,       .

                 .  Regulation (EU) 2026/1744  8  2026  (Digital Omnibus on AI),      24  2026      27  2026  [:   , 24.07.2026, EUR-Lex ELI reg/2026/1744/oj;  Mondaq  Addleshaw Goddard,  2026],    .      50    2  2026 ,        2  2026 ,           Annex III   2  2027 ,   ,       Annex I,   2  2028  (       GPAI).   :         ,     ,       ,          .

                ,   .     11  2025  Ensuring a National Policy Framework for AI         ,            (    9  2026 )           BEAD (    42,45  )        [:   14365, 11.12.2025;  , 09.01.2026;   Ropes & Gray,  2026].    1  2025     99  1         ,          .    1  2026       109      28          [:  NYU Center on Technology Policy, Tech Policy Press, 06.07.2026];    14409  2  2026           . ,         ,            .

     2026      :  -       .     26  2026   243-          (   8 ,    17 ,   1  2026 ;         1  2027 ) [:  243-, publication.pravo.gov.ru, 26.07.2026]           ;         11    ,    ,     ,       .        (),   1  2026        117,        .       117,     24  2026        1  2027  (   14  2026          ) [: ComNews  26.08.2026; SecurityLab, 2026],    :       ,    ,        (      )         ,    .








 5.1       :  20252028 

                ().   ,  9     2026        ( 40   ) [:  - 1,   û 19.03.2026  ComNews 20.03.2026;   ],    ,       .   ,  1  2027         ,           .    -           Anthropic,     Reuters [  Reuters, 29.09.2026]    ,                 ,       .         :    Air Canada      ,  -   ,      ,     .

      20232026         ,     2022 .   ,       ,   ,      ,      :

 

   Prspera  .

     ,           (ZEDE),      ,        ZEDE,     20  2024     ,          ,    [: Rio Times Online, 19.09.2026;   ICSID  6   ARB/23/2, 19.03.2026].  -         (ICSID)  ARB/23/2   CAFTA-DR: ,    2022   10,8    ,      ,     2025    1,63  .           Prspera,    2024 ,     .           ,     .

 

    Praxis   Network School.

 Praxis       525                150 000  (   ),                 2024  [: TechCrunch, 15.11.2024]     .      Network School   : 21  2026            - ( ).    , 22  2026 ,                     [:  Fortune  26.07.2026  TechCrunch,  2026].




  .


   .

   ,     (https://www.litres.ru/book/aleksandr-fishchuk-34106329/dokazannoe-deistvie-vlast-i-kontrol-nad-ii-agentami-str-74623534/)  .

      Visa, MasterCard, Maestro,    ,   ,     ,  PayPal, WebMoney, ., QIWI ,       .


