Будущее капитализма

20. John Kenneth Galbraith, The Great Crash of 1929 (New York: Houghton Mifflin, 1954; reprint, 1988), p. 184; U. S. Department of Commerce, Long Term Economic Growth 1860-1970 (Washington, D. C.: U. S. Government Printing Office, 1973), p. 222.

21. Louis Uchitelle, «Manufacturers Challenge Economic Policy,» New York Times, September 24, 1995, p. 38.

22. Robert Heilbroner and William Milberg, The Crisis of Vision in Modem Economic Thought (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1995), p. 120.

23. OECD, Quarterly National Accounts, No. 2, Paris, 1995, p. 145.

1. Deizai Koho Center, Japan 1995: An International Comparison (Tokyo: 1995), pp. 34, 35; U. S. Department of Commerce, Survey of Current Business, December 1993, pp 71, 72.

2. U. S. Department of Commerce, Survey of Current Business, pp. 38, 42.

3. Richard Holt, The Reluctant Superpower (New York: Kodansha International, 1995), p. 246; «Stock Market Indexes,» Asian Wall Street Journal, January 1, 1990, p. 18; August 24, 1992, p. 22.

4. Nikko Research Center, The Nikko Chartroom (Tokyo: July 1995), p. 8; «Japanese Property Crumbling,» The Economist, July 8, 1995, p. 83; «Slow Crisis in Japan,» Financial Times, July 1, 1995, p. 8.

5. «Japanese Property Crumbling,» p. 83; Akira Ikeya, «Falling Land Prices Spur Call for Tax Reform,» Nifcfcei Weekly, August 28, 1995, p. 2; Sheryl WuDunn, «Erosion in Japan's Foundation,» New York Times, October 4, 1995, p. Dl.

6. Robert E. Scott, «A Trade Strategy for the 21st Century,» in T. Schafer, ed., Foundations for a New Century (Washington, D. C.: Economic Policy Institute, M. E. Sharpe, forthcoming), p. 2.

7. Car and Driver: The Catalog, Japan ed., Buyers Guide (Tokyo: Diamond, 1995), p. 17.

8. «OK Mickey, Let's Say You Won,» The Economist, July 1, 1995, pp. 65-66.

9. Ibid., p. 75.

10. Guy de Jonquieres, «Japanese Quietly Celebrate World Trade Victory,» Financial

Times, March 20, 1995, p. 4.

11. Gerard Barker, «Driven Off the Oriental Highway: Japan Is Crowing over Its Victory in the U. S. Car Clash,» Financial Times, July 2, 1995, p. 9.

12. Steven Brull, «Another Seoul Pothole for Automakers,» International Herald Tribune, August 20, 1994, p. 7.

13. Sheryl WuDunn, «Protectionism Without Quotas,» International Herald Tribune. March 21, 1995, p. 17.

14. Clay Chandler, «Kodak Strives for Japan Exposure,» International Herald Tribune, June 27, 1995, p. 17.

15. «Top 300 Foreign Owned Companies in Japan, 1990,» Tokyo Business Today, August 1991, p. 54.

16. William Dawkins, «Pressure on Japanese Rates as GDP Falls,» Financial Times, March 19, 1995, p. 3.

17. «Industrial Growth,» The Economist, September 16, 1995, p. 122.

18. Mihoko Ida, «For Savers, Lower Interest Rates Not Enriching,» Nikkei Weekly, September 18, 1995.

19. «Borrowing,» The Economist, October 28, 1995, p. 123.

20. The Japan Research Institute Economics Department, «Escaping the Deflationary Spiral,» Japan Research Quarterly, Autumn 1995, p. 35.

21. Seymour Martin Lipset, «Pacific Divide: American Exceptionalism – Japanese Uniqueness,» /ntemotiona/ Journal of Public Opinion, Vol. 5, No. 2 (Spring, 1994), p. 121.

22. Economic Report of the President 1995, p. 402.

23. Richard Covington, «Ignoring Copyright Pact, China Reopens Factories That Pirated U. S. CDs,» International Herald Tribune, June 2, 1995, p. 1; «That Damned Dollar,» The Economist, February 25, 1995, p. 17.

1. Daniel Yergin, The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money, and Power (New York: Simon and Schuster, 1991), pp. 615-17.

2. Council of Economic Advisers, Economic Report of the President 1995 (Washington, D. C.: U. S. Government Printing Office), pp. 358, 366.

3. Benjamin C. Schwarz, «Is Capitalism Doomed?» New York Times, May 23 1994 pp. 1, 15.

4. Economic Report of the President 1995, pp. 401, 403.

5. «Economic and Financial Indicators,» The Economist, June 5, 1993, p. 131.

6. «Slow Growth Seen for '88,» Pensions and Investment Age, Vol. 15 (December 28 1987), pp. 3, 46.

7. Robert L. Heilbroner, Behind the Veil of Economics (New York W W Norton 1988) p. 29.

8. Morris Goldstem et al., International Capital Markets, International Monetary Fund, Washington, D. C., April 1993, p. 4; «A Survey of The World Economy,» The Economist, October 7, 1995, p. 10.

9. Saul Hansell, «The Collapse of Barings: For Rogue Traders Yet Another Victim,» New York Times, February 28, 1995, p. Dl.

10. «Gone Dutch,» The Economist, March 11, 1995, p. 83.

11. Peter Clark et al., Exchange Rates and Economic Fundamentals, International Monetary Fund, December 1994.

12. Ibid., p. 401.

13. DRI/McGraw-Hill, Impact of the Peso Crisis, February 1995, p. 1.

14. «After Mexico, Who's Next?» Fortune, March 6, 1995, p. 14.

15. «Suerging Europe,» The Economist, March 18, 1995, p. 78.

16. «Symposium: The Changing Structure of Mexico,» Challenge, March/April 1995 pp. 12-63.

17. R. Dornbusch and A. Wemer, Mexico: Stabilization, Reform, and No Growth, The World Economic Laboratory, MIT Working Paper No. 94-08, 1994; «Survey Mexico – Another Day, Another Dive,» The Economist, October 28, 1995, p. 6.

18. Geri Smith and Stephen Baker, «The Fall of Carlos Salinas,» Business Week March 27, 1995, p. 52.

19. Anthony DePalma, «Turmoil Grips Mexico over Shock Plan for Economy,» International Herald Tribune, March 13, 1995, p. 1.

20. «Mexican Package Gets Short Shrift,» Financial Times, February 23, 1995, p. 6.

21. David E. Sanger, «Mexico Is Facing New Restrictions to Get U. S. Help,» New York Times, February 20, 1995, p. 1; David E. Sanger, «Peso Rescue Sets New Limits on Mexico,» New York Times, February 22, 1995, p. 1.

22. Lawrence Malkin, «Trade Deficit Expands as Mexico Crisis Takes Its Toll,» International Herald Tribune, March 13, 1995, p. 1.

23. Leslie Crawford, «Inflation in Mexico Accelerated in March,» Financial Times March 25, 1995, p. 4.

24. Harry Hurt III, «It's Time to Get Real About Mexico,» Fortune, September 4 1995 p. 99.

25. A. M. Rosenthal, «Cover-up Chronology,» New York Times, April 4, 1995, p. A25.

26. «Of Politics, Pensions, and Piggy Banks,» The Economist, July 1, 1995 p 82

27. Ibid.

28. DePalma, «Turmoil Grips Mexico,» p. 6; Leslie Crawford, «Anger on the Streets As Mexico Swallows the Economic Medicine,» Financial Times, March 11, 1995, p. 4.

29. Douglas Farah, «First the Peso, Then the Mexican Dream,» International Herald Tribune, March 18, 1995, p. 1.

30. Anthony DePalma, «After the Fall: Two Faces of Mexico's Economy,» New York Times, July 16, 1995, p. Fl.

31. «Sorry, Gringos,» The Economist, August 26, 1995, p. 65.

32. Ibid.

33. Leslie Crawford, «Mexico's Vigil of Woe,» Financial Times, June 2, 1995, p. 12.

34. «Mexico Crisis and Stable Rates Cause Dollar Malaise,» International Herald Tnb-une, February 17, 1995, p. 11.

35. International Monetary Fund, International Financial Statistics Yearbook, 1994, Washington, D. C., 1995, p. 23.

36. Michael Mussa et al., Improving the International Monetary System (Washington, D. C.: International Monetary Fund, 1994).

1 . Adrian H. Bredero, Christendom and Christianity in the Middle Ages, trans. by Re-inder Bruinsma (Grand Rapids, Mich.: William B. Eerdmans, 1986), pp. 358-369; Jonathan Sumption, Pilgrimages (New Jersey: Rowman and Littlefield, 1975), pp. 270-279.

2 . Karl E. Meyer, «Editorial Notebook: The Roots of Bosnia's Anguish,» New York Times, February 28, 1993, sec. 4, p. 14.

3 . «Time to Help Algeria,» The Economist, February 18, 1995, p. 13.

4 . Serge Schmemarm, «Police Say Rabin Killer Led Sect That Also Targeted Palestinians,» New York Times, November 11, 1995, p. 1; John Kifner, «Zeal of Rabin's Assassin Springs from Rabbis of Religious Right,» New York Times, November 12, 1995, p. 1.

5 . Nicholas D. Kristof, «New Chemical Cache Spreads Fear,» International Herald Tribune, March 25-26, 1995, p. 1.

6 . Tom Kuntz, «From Thought to Deed: In the Mind of a Killer Who Says He Served God,» New York Times, September 24, 1995, p. E7.

7 . Jack Lessenberry, «Michigan Group United by Guns, Anger,» Boston Globe, April 22, 1995, p. 1.

8 . John Kifner, «Despite Oklahoma Charges, the Case is Far from Closed,» New York Times, August 12, 1995, pp. 1, 24.

9 . Gustav Niebuhr, «A Vision of Apocalypse: The Religion of the Far Right,» New York Times, May 22, 1995, p. A8.

10 . Gustav Niebuhr, «Assault on Waco Sect Fuels Extremists' Rage,» New York Times, April 26, 1995, p. A12.

11 . Bruce Hoffman, «In America, Too, Violence All the Worse for Its Religious Pretenses,» International Herald Tribune, April 27, 1995, p. 8.

12 . William Pfaff, «No Excusing Those Who Brook the Reverend's Nonsense,» International Herald Tribune, March 11, 1995, p. 6.

13 . Frank Rich, «Gingrich Family Values,» New York Times, May 14, 1995, p. E15.

14 . «The Tablets of Ralph,» The Economist, May 20, 1995, p. 60.

15 . «The Counter-attack of God,» The Economist, July 8, 1995, p. 25.

16 . Tom Nairn, «Internationalism and the Second Coming,» Reconstructing Nations and States, special issue of Daedalus, Summer 1993, p. 168.

17 . Charles F. Doran and Ellen Reisman Babby, eds., Being and Becoming Canada, The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, March 1995.

18 . Tony Judt, «1988: The End of Which European Era?» After Communism, What? special issue of Daedalus, Summer 1994, p. 24.

19 . Martin Kramer, «Arab Nationalism: Mistaken Identity,» Reconstructing Nations and States, special issue of Daedalus, Summer 1993, p. 171.

20 . Francis Fukuyama, «Blood and Belonging,» New York Times Book Review, April 10, 1994, p. 7.

21 . Marlise Simons, «Corsican Separatists Separate,» International Herald Tribune, June 3, 1995, p. 2.

22 . Douglas B. Klusmeyer, «Aliens, Immigrants, and Citizens,» Reconstructing Nations and States, special issue of Daedalus, Summer 1993, p. 102.

23 . Eric Hobsbawm, Age of Extremes: The Short Twentieth Century, 1914-1991 (London: Michael Joseph, 1994), p. 11.

24 . Ralph C. Bryant, 'Increasing Economic Integration and Eroding Political Sovereignty," The Brookings Review, Fall 1994, p. 42.

1. Arthur R. Jensen, Straight Talk About Mental Tests (New York' Free Press 1981) P. 6.

2. Richard Sandomir, «Pro Basketball: Players Sue to Raise NBA Salary Cap,» New York Times, November 10, 1994, p. B4.

3. Council of Economic Advisers, Economic Report of the President 1995 [Washington, D. C.: U. S. Government Printing Office), pp. 280, 358.

4. Martin Baily, Gary Burtless, Robert E. Litan, Growth with Equity (Washington, D. C.: Brookmgs Institution, 1993).

5. Jennifer L. Hochschild, What's Fair? American Beliefs About Distributive Justice (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1981), p. 9.

6. Francis Fukuyama, The End of History and the Last Man (New York: Avon Books, 1992), pp. 242, 291.

7. Encyclopedia Britannica, Vol. 20, 1972 edition, p. 631.

8. J. L. Baxter, Behavioral Foundations of Economics (New York: St. Martin's Press, 1993), pp. 28, 35.

9. Ibid., p. 53.; Tibor Scitovsky, The Joyless Economy (New York: Oxford University Press, 1978), p. 109.

10. Jonathan H. Turner, Herbert Spencer: A Renewed Appreciation (Beverly HUIs, Calif.: Sage Publishers, 1985), p. 11; J. D. Y. Peel, Herbert Spencer, The Evolution of a Sociologist (New York: Basic Books, 1971); Herbert Spencer, The Principles of Biology, Vol. 1 (New York: Appleton amp; Co., 1866), p. 530.

11. Richard J. Herrnstein and Charles Murray, The Bell Curve: Intelligence and Class Structure in American Life (New York: Free Press, 1994).

12. Census and Statistics Department, Hong Kong Annual Digest of Statistics, 1994 Edition (Hong Kong: Government Printer), p. 198.

13. Ng Kang-Chung, «Resale Reform to Free Flats for Needy,» South China Morning Post, Sept. 16, 1995, p. 1.

14. John A. Garraty, Unemployment in History (New York: Harper and Row 1978) p. 134.

15. Peter Applebome, «In Gingrich's College Course, Critics Find a Wealth of Ethical Concerns,» New York Times, February 20, 1995, p. C7.

16. Eric Hobsbawm, Age of Extremes: The Short Twentieth Century, 1914-1991 (London: Michael Joseph, 1994), p. 138.

17. Newt Gingrich, Contract with America (New York: Times Books 1994) 18.Ibid.

19. Nordal Akerman, ed., The Necessity of Friction (Heidelberg: Physica-Verlag 1993) p. 12.

20. Alan Cowell, «Socialists Are Sinking in Germany,» New York Times, September 24 1995, p. 4.

21. Michael Thompson-Noel, «A Daily Dose of Pick and Mix News,» Financial Times March 13, 1995, p. 10.

22. Richard Tomkins, «Enter the Bespoken Newspaper,» Financial Times, March 13 1995, p. 11.

23. Fernand Braudel, The Identity of France, Vol. II, People and Production (New York: Fontana Press, 1991), p. 102.

24. Frances Gies and Joseph Gies, Forge and Waterwheel: Technology and Innovation in the Middle Ages (New York: HarperCoIlins), 1994, pp. 1, 3.

25. Braudel, The Identity of France, p. 102.

26. Georges Duby, ed., A History of Private Life: Revelations of the Medieval World (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press/Belknap Press, 1988), p. 123.

27. Gies and Gies, Forge and Waterwheel, pp. 37, 43.

28. Fernand Braudel, The Structures of Everyday Life: The Limits of the Possible, Vol. 1 (New York: Harper and Row, 1981), p. 123.

29. William Manchester, A World Lit Only by Fire: The Medieval Mind and the Renaissance (Boston: Little, Brown, 1992), p. 47.

30. Ibid., p. 5.

31. Ibid., p. 69.

32. Braudel, The Identity of France, p. 102.

33. Manchester, A World Lit Only by Fire, p. 96.

34. Ibid., p. 51.

35. Ibid.; Georges Duby, Dominique B. Arthelemy, and Charles De LaRonciere, «Portraits,» in Georges Duby, ed., A History of Private Life: Revelations of the Medieval World (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press/Belknap Press, 1988), p. 170.

36. Fernand Braudel, The Mediterranean and the Mediterranean World in the Age of PhilUp 11 (New York: Harper and Row, 1973), p. 745.

37. Duby, ed., A History of Private Life, p. 23.

38. Ibid., p. 397.

39. Duby, Arthelemy, and De LaRonciere, «Portraits,» pp. 116, 165; Norman F. Cantor, The Civilization of the Middle Ages (New York: HarperCoIlins, 1993), p. 197.

40. Timothy Egan, «Many Seek Security in Private Communities,» New York Times, Septembers, 1995, p. 1.

41. Ibid., p. 22.

42. Adam Pertman, 'Home Safe Home: Closed Communities Grow," Boston Globe, March 14, 1994, p. 1.

43. Dale Mahadridge, «Walled Off,» Mother Jones, November/December 1994, p. 27.

44. Ibid.

45. Egan, «Many Seek Security,» p. 22.

46. Edward J. Blakely and Marach Gail Snyder, Fortress America: Gated and Walled Communities in the United States, Lincoln Institute of Land Policy, June 10, 1994, p. 11.

47. Ibid., p. 9.

48. Cantor, The Civilization of the Middle Ages, p. 195.

49. Manchester, A World Lit Only by Fire, p. 47.

50. Cantor, The Civilization of the Middle Ages, p. 119.

51. Fernand Braudel, A History of Civilization (New York: Penguin Press, 1963), p. 17.

52. Manchester, A World Lit Only by Fire, p. 5.

53. Duby, ed., A History of Private Life, p. 69.

54. Cantor, The Civilization of the Middle Ages, p. 187; Gies and Gies, Forge and Waterwheel, p. 178.

55. Manchester, A World Lit Only by Fire, pp. 6, 7.

56. Ibid., p. 11.

57. Ibid., p. 37.

58. Malcolm Barber, The Two Cities: Medieval Europe 1050-1320 (New York: Rout-ledge, 1992), p. 27.

59. Cantor, The Civilization of the Middle Ages, p. 27.

60. Manchester, A World Lit Only by Fire, p. 73.

61. Susan Strange, «The Defective State,» Daedalus, Spring 1995, p. 56.

62. Manchester, A World Lit Only by Fire, p. 3.

63. Ibid., pp. 86,90, 102, 121.

64. Jerry Gray, «Budget Axes Land on Items Big and Small,» New York Times, February 24, 1995, p. A14.

65. Gunnar Myrdal, Against the Stream (New York: Pantheon, 1972).

66. Robert Heilbroner and William Milberg, The Crisis of Vision in Modem Economic Thought (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1995), p. 108.

67. Richard Holt, The Reluctant Superpower (New York: Kodansha International, 1995), p. 1.

68. R. С. Lewontin, Steven Rose and Leon J. Kamin, Not in Our Genes: Biology, Ideology, and Human Nature (New York: Pantheon Books, 1984), p. 69.

69. Gary S. Becker and William M. Landes, Essays in the Economics of Crime and Punishment (New York: Columbia University Press/ National Bureau of Economic Research, 1974), p. 18.

70. Lewontin, Rose, and Kamin, Not in Our Genes, p. 5.

71. Amitai Etzioni, The Spirit of Community: Rights, Responsibility, and the Communi tarian Agenda (New York: Crown Publishers, 1993), p. 30.

72. Daniel Bell and Irving Kristol, eds., The Crisis in Economic Theory (New York: Basic Books, 1981); Samuel Brittan, The Role and Limits of Government (Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press, 1983), p. 26.

73. Myrdal, Against the Stream.

74. Fred Block, Post-Industrial Possibilities: A Critique of Economic Discourse (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1990), p. 39.

75. James M. Buchanan and Robert D. Tollison, Theory of PubKc Choice: Political Applications of Economics (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1972).

76. Mark A. Lutz and Kenneth Lux, Humanistic Economics (New York: Bootstrap Press 1988).

1. Joseph Nathan Kane, Famous First Facts (New York: H. W. Wilson, 1981), p. 611.

2. Peter F. Drucker, The Age of Social Transformation," Atlantic Monthly, November 1994, p. 53.

3. «It's People, Stupid,» The Economist, May 27, 1995, p. 67; U. S. Department of Commerce, 1987 Census of Service Industries (Washington, D. C.: U. S. Government Printing Office, 1990); American Bar Foundation, Lawyers' Statistical Report (Chicago: 1994), p. 6.

4. Lester C. Thurow, Investment in Human Capital (Belmont, Calif.: Wadsworth, 1970).

5. NPV =???R-C)/(l+r)

где? – сумма от 0 до бесконечнлсти; NPV – чистая текущая стоимость (Net Present Value); r – норма учетной ставки (discount rate); t – время (time); R – доходы (returns); С – издержки (costs).

6. При капитализме противоречие между потреблением и инвестированием разрешается путем приведения норм (процентов) временного предпочтения к равновесию с банковской ставкой процента. Если банковская ставка составляет 10%, то любой индивидуум с нормой временного предпочтения ниже 10% может повысить свою чистую текущую стоимость будущих потребительских товаров, если станет делать сбережения, не потребляя сегодня, и тем самым сможет потребить на 10% больше год спустя. Каждый такой индивидуум продолжает делать сбережения до тех пор, пока соотношение между текущим и ожидаемым будущим потреблением не поднимет его личную норму временного предпочтения до 10% – банковской ставки процента. В этот момент он максимизирует чистую текущую стоимость будущих потребительских товаров и больше не будет заинтересован в сокращении текущего потребления с целью увеличения будущего потребления.

С другой стороны, если нормы прибыли от новых инвестиций ниже процента временного предпочтения для некоторых потребителей, последние увеличат свое потребление (и с этой целью сократят сбережения и возьмут заем), чтобы опять же увеличить чистую совокупную стоимость своего потребления.

Сегодняшнее потребление для них стоит больше, чем потребление в будущем, когда им придется возвращать долги. Если банковская процентная ставка составляет 10%, то для любого индивидуума с нормой временного предпочтения ниже 10% благоразумно занимать денежные средства, чтобы поднять текущее потребление. Он будет поступать так до тех пор, пока его текущее потребление не станет настолько велико относительно будущего потребления, что его индивидуальный процент временного предпочтения упадет до 10% В этот момент он опять же максимизирует свою чистую текущую стоимость потребительских товаров за время жизни.

Если людей с нормами временного предпочтения ниже 10% много, то их общие сбережения снизят процентную ставку. Наоборот, если у многих норма временного предпочтения выше 10%, их дополнительное потребление повысит банковскую процентную ставку. То же самое справедливо для инвесторов. Благодаря инвесторам, которым требуются денежные средства на финансирование проектов, приносящих больше 10% дохода, банковская процентная ставка повысится; прекращение инвестиций, приносящих меньше 10% дохода, понизит ее. Оптимум капиталистических вложений достигается, когда процентная ставка такова, что ни у кого нет стимула изменять ни объем своего потребления, ни объем инвестиций.

7. U. S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Money Income of Households, Families, and Persons in the United States, 1992, Current Population Reports, Consumer Income, Series P-60 (Washington, D. C.: U. S. Government Printing Office, 1993), pp. 144, 146.

8. Ibid., p. 121.

9. George Psacharopoulos, "Returns to Education: A Further International Update and Implications, Journal of Human Resources, 1985, p. 583.

10. James M. Poterba, Government Intervention in the Markets for Education and Health Care: How and Why? NBER Working Paper No. 4916, 1995.